Will Moon’s achievements in N.Korea pay off?
South Korean President Moon Jaein came to Pyongyang with two missions in his mind: to further reduce fear of war by ending the tension and possibility of military conflict between the two Koreas, and to promote talks between the US and North Korea. His missions were accomplished. Moon and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un jointly signed the Pyongyang declaration on Wednesday, adding new momentum to inter-Korean relations and paving the way for the US and North Korea to resume stalled negotiations.
Some progress was made on bilateral issues in the third summit. Both leaders agreed to enlarge the scope of people-to-people contacts and exchange. According to the declaration, the two Koreas will jointly bid to host the 2032 Summer Olympic Games, jointly commemorate the 11th anniversary of October 4 Declaration and the 100th anniversary of the March First Independence Movement against Japanese colonial rule; and a North Korean art troupe will stage a performance in Seoul in October. Inter-Korean cooperation continues to flourish in the cultural field in an orderly fashion. To my dismay, the Pyongyang declaration failed to adopt substantive measures to speed up family reunions since many old people have been anxious too long to get a chance to meet their loved ones on the other side. In the field of security, Moon and Kim agreed to institutionalize military contact by setting up a joint military committee, which will supervise the implementation of the military agreements signed by both sides. In the economic field, both leaders agreed to do a number of things: First, to hold ground-breaking ceremony for reconnecting severed railways and roads on the east and west coasts and modernizing them before the end of 2018; Second, to normalize the operation of the Kaesong Industrial Complex and Mount Kumgang tourism project, if the conditions are met; Third, to hold consultations on the formation of the West Sea special economic zone and the East Sea joint tourism zone. Both Koreas are preparing for the large-scale economic cooperation if the sanctions against North Korea are lifted in the future.
Although both leaders tried hard to boost inter-Korean relations, such efforts have been hurt by following factors. South Korea is an ally of the US and Washington has a strong military presence in South Korea and retains the wartime operational control of South Korean forces. Without blessings from Washington, Seoul cannot go too far in promoting security cooperation and confidence-building with Pyongyang. So far, the US has cast a wary eye on rapid development of inter-Korean relations. Second, as international sanctions against North Korea still remain in place, inter-Korean economic cooperation faces daunting challenges. Due to sanctions, the old cooperative projects, which have been suspended, cannot be restored; new projects, which have quite a promising future, look nice on paper. Without tangible progress in economic cooperation, inter-Korean rapprochement may not last long.
In comparison with the lackluster progress in bilateral relations, the Pyongyang joint declaration carries more impressive results on the denuclearization issue. In addition to the informal commitment to seeking denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula within President Donald Trump’s first term, Kim made additional formal commitment, “the North side agreed to permanently shut down Dongchang-ri engine test ground and rocket launch pad with the participation of experts from related countries.”
This simple commitment contains quite rich meanings: To begin with, it will be a unilateral action, demonstrating North Korea’s goodwill and concrete action to seek complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Moreover, this action will be undertaken under international verification, thus encouraging analysts to imagine that North Korea may soften its position on the verification issue, which has been a bone of contention with the US. In order to sweeten his offer to the US, Kim expressed his willingness “to continue with additional steps toward denuclearization such as the permanent destruction of the Yongbyon nuclear facility if the US takes corresponding actions in line with the spirit of the June 12 North Korea-US joint statement.” Obviously, the Pyongyang joint declaration demonstrates North Korea has taken major strides in seeking early resumption of talks with the US, thus helping Moon to accomplish his second mission.
Trump responded swiftly and favorably with his tweets, and on the same day US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo immediately spoke to North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho, inviting him to meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York this week. Pompeo announced, “On the basis of these important commitments, the United States is prepared to engage immediately in negotiations to transform US-North Korea relations” and achieve the denuclearization of North Korea “by January 2021.”
Moon fought an uphill but rewarding diplomatic battle in Pyongyang. He accomplished missions and further cemented his personal relations with Kim, who will be the first top leader of North Korea to set foot in Seoul since the end of the Korean War in 1953. Some of the achievements he made are less impressive, whereas some are beyond the expectation of experts. In short, Moon and Kim continued to make history. If Kim follows through by turning his will into commitments in his second meeting with Trump that may take place soon, the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and normalization of US-North Korean relations will officially take off.