Can right-wing parties fix Brazilʼs social problems?
Brazilian presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro from the far-right Social Liberal Party (PSL) claimed 46.03 percent vote in the first round of election on October 7. His rival, Fernando Haddad from the left-wing Worker's Party, took the second place by obtaining 29.28 percent. Both will contest the run-off on October 28.
Although various surveys had predicted that the two candidates will win in the first round, the election caused global ripples. The sweeping win of Bolsonaro was far beyond expectation. His party, the PSL, jumped from eight seats to 52 in the Lower House, making it the second largest party. The Bolsonaro phenomenon is not only an achievement in itself, but also changes the political dynamics of Brazil with the right wing gaining momentum.
As the biggest power in South America, does the political landscape of Brazil mean an end to the “pink tide” of left-wing governments since the start of the 21st century? How will the region's right-wing tendency change the geopolitical dynamics and foreign relations?
The rise of Bolsonaro seems accidental, but has its own rationale. It reflects the dissatisfaction of Brazilian society with a set of political traditions— the traditional political elite and traditional mode of governance.
Since the 1990s, when Bolsonaro entered politics, he made public comments to support military intervention, gays, women and racial minorities. Therefore, the media labeled him a Fascist, an authoritarian fanatic and a racist.
From Bolsonaro's campaign rhetoric, we can see that his “clean background” and “iron-fist proposals” are reasons behind his emergence as an outsider. During the anti-corruption campaign that engulfed Brazil in the past four years, political corruption caught the attention of the Brazilian public. The core elite of almost all the major parties, including Bolsonaro's rivals, faced corruption investigations.
Therefore, Bolsonaro's background made him popular among voters. Meanwhile, as problems of corruption and public security cannot be addressed, his iron-fist proposals cater to voters' demand to change the country's style of governance.
On October 10, Datafolha, a polling institute in Brazil, released a survey after the first round of election. The support rate for Bolsonaro stood at 58 percent, 16 percentage points higher than Haddad's. As Bolsonaro would secure his victory by winning four more percentage points on the basis of the October 7 result, that Brazilian politics is turning to the right has almost become a reality.
This is in line with the global political dynamics in recent years. In South American countries such as Argentina, Venezuela, Peru, Chile and Colombia, the right-wing tendency was obvious even a few years ago.
The political swaying between the left and the right can be attributed to the failure of governance by left-wing governments, especially when the social distribution policy advocated by such administrations has come to a dead end amid a sluggish economy.
Now the question is how often will such political oscillation occur? This is determined by whether right-wing governments can effectively address the problems that caused the retreat of left-wing ones, such as economic downturn, rising debts, soaring unemployment and worsening social security.
Judging from the situation in some South American countries in the past two years, these problems were not fundamentally addressed. Argentina, which has been experiencing continuous economic decline, is a typical example. If the situation cannot improve, political uncertainty in South America will increase.
In terms of geopolitics and foreign relations, Bolsonaro came up with radical plans during his election campaign, which differ greatly from South-South cooperation preferred and promoted by the Worker's Party. It remains to be seen whether Bolsonaro will implement his diplomatic ideas.