Winner of record lottery in the US will have luck to thank, but so do Silicon Valley titans

The Mega Millions lottery jackpot, available in 44 US states, the District of Columbia and the US Virgin Islands, has reached a record $1.6 billion. A successful punter or several will become at least as well off as founders of a hefty Silicon Valley technology unicorn. Rubbing shoulders on rich lists might rankle with startup billionaires – but their wealth owes plenty to luck, too.

The accumulation of all great fortunes involves a dollop of chance. Tuesday’s drawing may create one entirely on luck.

The net, assuming a lump sum payout – smaller than the headline figure, which assumes regular payments over years – would probably be somewhere north of $500 million after tax for a single winner. That’s more than many paper billionaires in Silicon Valley are probably worth, given the proliferation of private companies with vapor-fueled valuations.

The lottery structure of many dud bets and a few giant payouts is also familiar to venture-capital and angel investors. The economics are better, however. Jackpots roll over when there’s no winner but only new $2 tickets are valid, so right now expected returns on Mega Millions are positive. Buying all 303 million number combinations – if that were somehow possible – would net at least a share of the jackpot and about $75 million in secondary prizes. That’s surely better odds than backing a pool of new cryptocurrency and dog-walking startups.

If the top prize again goes begging, Friday’s prize will be far larger, as each bigger tally attracts more players than the last and a slice of their stakes are added to the next. Before long, an eventual winner could land in rarified levels of wealth, even for Palo Alto.

More than a few tech leaders cling to the idea that smarts, skill and perspiration took them to the top of the heap. Wealth is merely a handy scorecard for these traits.

Perhaps it’s easier than admitting that, in a world of winner-take-all companies, a chance of investment or timing could have easily favored another social network, advertising platform or dating app. For them, a lottery winner with a fatter bank account may induce some psychic distress.

The author is Robert Cyran, a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The article was first published on Reuters Breakingviews. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn