Defense budget uncertainty may affect combat readiness of US military
US President Donald Trump has reversed his pledge to trim defense spending and told Defense Secretary Jim Mattis to submit a $750 billion budget proposal for fiscal 2020, the Politico reported on Sunday. Just in early December, US military planners were still concerned about the Trump administration’s plan to cut fiscal year 2020 defense spending.
After taking office, a series of measures by the Trump administration, such as financial boost to the Pentagon and tax cuts, have put Washington’s fiscal health in a morass. According to the US Congressional Budget Office report, “the gap between government spending and revenue will be persistently large” and the fiscal deficit will reach $1 trillion in fiscal year 2020. Defense spending has long taken the lion’s share – about 15 percent – of US federal spending. Trump has proposed to slash the defense budget from $733 billion to $700 billion, or by 4.5 percent in fiscal 2020.
But crimping the defense budget will affect the defense sector and Washington’s military strength.
First, a cut of military spending will disrupt the US military’s short- and middleterm budget plans which have been made in fiscal year 2018 and 2019. The key areas for military expenditure and investment have been determined. US military budget plans in recent years have been troubled by the Budget Control Act of 2011 which brought about limited investment and injected uncertainty in the process. Trump’s previous two proposals of raising defense outlay had made the military hopeful of getting rid of the troubles. A cut in budget would have increased the element of uncertainty in the Pentagon’s budget planning.
Second, funds squeeze is likely to interrupt combat readiness. In recent years, the inconsistent budget and frequent troop deployment abroad have resulted in rising burden, insufficient training, frequent accidents and inadequate equipment maintenance for the US military. Hence the US wanted more troops and armaments to help combat readiness.
Trump has twice proposed raising troop numbers by 20,000 and 15,000 respectively in the last two years, while significantly increasing purchase of hardware. If the defense budget is slashed, it will be difficult to carry out these measures. More importantly, because it is hard to cut down spending under the heads “military personnel” and “operations and maintenance,” the Pentagon can only reduce investment in long-term plans of modernization, which will be crucial for the military.
Third, if the budget is cut, it will affect deployment and operations of the US military overseas. In recent years, Washington has drastically reduced the scale and frequency of overseas deployment and training due to budgetary constraints, with the absence of the US military felt repeatedly in key areas and maritime regions. The 2018 National Defense Strategy proposed to overcome the above problems with dynamic military deployment.
However, the budget uncertainty may make it difficult for US armed forces to cover the whole world, and the strategic dynamics of more US presence in the Asia-Pacific region and Europe may get affected.
Trump has been pushing a tough foreign policy, so the impact of potential changes on diplomacy due to a smaller budget remains to be seen.
US military enterprises and servicemen are bound to pressure the administration if there are military budget cuts. According to the Politico report, the new $750 billion number is a “negotiating tactic” to be used in the current budget negotiations. Since the president “changes his mind constantly,” as an official was quoted in the report, it remains to be seen how much the US military budget will eventually stay at.
The author is the deputy director of the Institute of American Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. opinion@globaltimes. com.cn