Will second Trump-Kim summit affect Japan?
The second summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jongun in Hanoi, Vietnam on February 27 and 28 will trigger complicated changes in East Asia’s politics. Though the effect on US-Japan relations will be limited, North Korea-Japan ties will move in a positive direction.
Currently, Pyongyang demands withdrawal of sanctions, signing a peace treaty, an end-of-war declaration, and a security guarantee for North Korea. Washington had asked Pyongyang to undertake complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization, which might be now relaxed. The US may agree that North Korea fulfill it in stages. Before any progress in denuclearization, the US will not ease sanctions substantially. Therefore, the Hanoi talks could produce substantive results, much more significant than the Singapore summit.
However, it won’t shake the relationship between the US and its East Asian allies. Even if the US and North Korea forge new relations, it would obviously not be as firm as the US-Japan alliance. Once the talks make headway, Washington may gradually lift the sanctions on Pyongyang, helping get North Korea’s economy out of the doldrums. Other areas will be left as they are.
In this context, possible improvement in US-North Korea ties would not have noticeable impact on US-Japan relations. However, it may make Tokyo and Pyongyang move closer.
In recent years, Japan and North Korea have interacted mainly on the issue of past abductions of Japanese nationals, and over Pyongyang conducting nuclear and missiles tests which have Japan within their range. Whenever tensions soared on the Korean Peninsula, Japan took a hard-line stance toward North Korea and proposed to enhance sanctions.
If Washington-Pyongyang ties improve, Tokyo may rethink its policy toward North Korea, participate in efforts with other East Asian countries to push for peace on the Peninsula and ease geopolitical strains.
After the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, Tokyo has been marginalized over the Korean Peninsula.
Furthermore, on the abductions issue and North Korea’s nuclear issue, Japan’s right to speak is waning.
If US basic request on North Korea is met, Japan may seek to normalize relations with North Korea. Furthermore, Tokyo may help Pyongyang’s economy later by offering financial aid and investment. With these moves, Japan may intend to increase its influence on the Peninsula.
Amid the easing ties between North and South Korea, as well as between Pyongyang and other stakeholders on the Korean Peninsula, if Japan maintains its conservative strategy for North Korea, its overall Northeast Asia diplomacy will be affected.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would find it hard to shore up domestic support through vibrant diplomacy. Tokyo can take advantage of the positive signals the next Trump-Kim summit generates to win the opportunity to boost its ties with North Korea.
If Washington-Pyongyang ties are significantly enhanced, it will send a conciliatory message to Tokyo. Under the US-Japan-South Korea alliance and under the framework of US-Japan military cooperation, if North Korea is still hostile toward Japan, it may find it hard to get a multilateral diplomatic foothold in East Asia. In fact, Pyongyang hopes to talk to Tokyo. North Korea’s geopolitics depends on support from traditionally friendly states such as China and Russia. Meanwhile, it also desires to enhance relations with South Korea and Japan, so as to gain maximum advantage in multilateral geopolitics and security in East Asian and Asia-Pacific regions.
The last time Japanese leaders visited Pyongyang was during the administration of then prime minister Junichiro Koizumi. As then deputy chief cabinet secretary, Abe was also part of the visiting delegation. Currently, the domestic politics in Japan is stable. Abe is set to remain in office until 2021. Abe’s diplomacy with Russia has been criticized at home as fawning toward Moscow. Abe would not risk visiting North Korea if Pyongyang does not make obvious concessions. Japan’s strategic changes toward North Korea should come about gradually.
However, Abe and Kim may meet in a third state, which is friendly with both countries, such as Mongolia. Their diplomats, special envoys may meet first, laying the ground for both leaders’ face-to-face talks. However, a meeting between Abe and Kim may unlikely happen in 2019.
The author is director and research fellow of Institute of Northeast Asian Studies at Heilongjiang Provincial Academy of Social Sciences and chief expert at Northeast Asian Strategic Studies Institute. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn