India’s Kashmir move to backfire: analysts

▶ Pakistan downgrades diplomatic ties

India’s decision to scrap the special status of Indian-controlled Kashmir increased regional instability and will surely backfire on India’s interest in the end, Chinese experts said Thursday, urging India to peacefully resolve its conflict with Pakistan.

On Wednesday night, Pakistan suspended trade with India and downgraded its diplomatic relations after a high-level meeting chaired by Prime Minister Imran Khan on Wednesday in response to India’s move.

Khan activated all diplomatic channels to expose the brutal Indian “racist” regime and human rights violations, the government of Pakistan announced on Wednesday, the Pakistani government’s official twitter account said.

India on Thursday called Pakistan’s decision to downgrade diplomatic ties an attempt to present an alarming picture to the world about their bilateral relations, and urged Islamabad to review its decision, Indian news agency PTI reported.

The report quoted India’s Ministry of External Affairs as saying that India regrets the steps announced by Pakistan on Wednesday and insists that its decision is an internal affair.

The escalating tensions in Kashmir will pose a severe challenge to India’s and the whole region’s security, Zhao Gancheng, director of the Center for Asia-Pacific Studies at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, told the Global Times.

Hu Zhiyong, a research fellow at the Institute of International Relations of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, warned that India’s move could invite a possible war between the two countries.

This move also caused concern over the possible oppression in the predominantly Muslim territory, and will invite criticism from the Muslim world, Hu said.

Zhao suspects that Modi government was boosted by the Bharatiya Janata Party sweeping victory in the election this year, and also to divert attention from the slowing economy.

The international community also opposes India’s move. The Washington Post published an editorial on Tuesday, saying “this is the Modi government’s darkest moment,” while the Guardian warned that India’s move is “incendiary and wrong.”

According to reports, India’s move also involves an announcement of Ladakh as Union Territory, where there is the western sector of the ChinaIndia boundary.

In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said on Tuesday that “India has continued to damage China’s territorial sovereignty by unilaterally modifying its laws. This is unacceptable and will not have any effect.”

“We urge the Indian side to be cautious on the border issue, strictly abide by the relevant agreements of the two sides, and avoid taking actions that further complicate the border issue.”

When asked about China’s stance on the situation, Hua said on Tuesday that China’s stance on this issue is “clear and consistent.”

“The relevant sides need to exercise restraint and act prudently. In particular, they should refrain from taking actions that will unilaterally change the status quo and escalate tensions,” said Hua.

The suspension of bilateral trade between India and Pakistan could hurt businesses in both countries, but most importantly it will increase the tension in the region, experts warned on Thursday.

China, which has sought to prevent ties between the two countries from deteriorating further, will make every effort – including economic means – to improve the regional situation, they said.

“The trade suspension is a signal of worsening bilateral relations, but it won’t have a major impact on either economy as the two have a limited trade volume. However, it signals an increase of tensions,” Long Xingchun, a research fellow at the Charhar Institute and director of the Center for Indian Studies at China West Normal University, told the Global Times on Thursday.

Pakistan decided to suspend bilateral trade and downgrade its diplomatic relations with India, the Pakistan Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement on Wednesday.

Indian and Pakistani troops recently exchanged fire and shelled each other several times near the Line of Actual Control in Jammu Kashmir, and trade relations between the two countries were already strained, according to media reports.

“Suspending trade could be just the first step, as Pakistan is testing different countries’ response, but we advocate that all parties should work hard to reduce regional pressures, rather than aggravate these pressures,” Dai Yonghong, a professor and academic member of the China Center of South Asia Studies at Sichuan University, told the Global Times.

In the hope of preventing the regional situation from getting worse, China has sought to mediate between the two countries in recent years.

India and Pakistan should refrain from taking actions that will unilaterally change the status quo and escalate tensions in Kashmir, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Tuesday in response to a question.

China will continue to help Pakistan improve its investment environment and strengthen its manufacturing ability through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Long said.

Experts also urged that India should take a cautious attitude and should never trespass into Chinese territory, which is the country’s bottom line and an issue on which it will never give in.

“The China-India relationship has improved after the Wuhan summit last year. A worsening China-India relationship will only hurt India’s economy and hurt the China-India economic ties that China has been trying hard to maintain,” Dai said.