Experts upbeat about 2020 economic prospects
Figure shows resilience amid external pressure
China achieved GDP growth of more than 6 percent in 2019, meaning it met the 6-6.5 percent goal set by the government at the start of the year, experts said.
They said the figure was a medium-fast growth rate showing that China’s economy remained strong, despite the pressure it faced externally and internally.
Growth will be about 6 percent in 2020, they said, reflecting the easing of China-US trade friction and the impact of government efforts involving reform and opening-up.
UBS Securities estimated China’s fourth-quarter GDP growth at 6 percent, citing faster trade expansion amid the slowing growth of manufacturing and retail sales. For the whole year of 2019, it estimated that GDP growth was 6.1 percent.
US-based credit ratings provider Moody’s was a little more optimistic, and it estimated China’s GDP growth for 2019 at 6.2 percent, while Bank of Communications gave a figure of 6.1 percent.
All those projections point to a slowdown of China’s economic growth from 6.6 percent in 2018 and 6.8 percent in 2017.
Experts said growth slowed last year due to the pressure of additional tariffs as the China-US trade war raged, while investment and consumption demand were imperiled by the weakening of traditional economic momentum. But they said that China’s economic growth has been stable and relatively fast.
“As China’s GDP base becomes bigger and bigger, the incremental GDP per year is deemed remarkable, and China’s growth rate will remain among the highest in the world,” Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at JP Morgan, told the Global Times on Thursday.
He also pointed to “encouraging progress” in China’s economic structure, such as a steady transition from manufacturing to the services sector, financial deleveraging, and stabilization of the debt problem in recent years.
Lin Chen, associate dean of the School of Applied Economics under Renmin University of China, said that China’s 2019 GDP growth was “still stable” and shows the resilience of the Chinese economy. “It was mostly in line with market expectations,” he told the Global Times.
Experts were even more upbeat about this year’s economic prospects, as the easing of China-US trade friction gave them hope for rebounding trade numbers.
The two countries signed what they billed as the first phase of a broader trade pact on Wednesday (US time).
“The negative impact from the tariff increases should diminish after the second quarter, and China’s export growth is expected to bounce back into positive territory in 2020,” Tang Jianwei, an economist at Bank of Communications, told the Global Times on Thursday. He forecast that China’s GDP was likely to grow by 6 percent in 2020.
“The phase one deal between China and the US can mitigate tariff war risks in 2020...we expect China’s export sector activity could stabilize in the coming months,” Zhu said.
Lin Jiang, a professor of economics at Lingnan University College at Sun Yat-sen University, also said that he’s hopeful of China achieving at least 6 percent GDP growth in 2020.