China’s COVID-19 predictor shows US may see 30,000 new cases daily
A group of Chinese scientists has developed a global prediction platform for the COVID-19 pandemic based on the impact of climate, environmental conditions and government control measures, which was launched on Monday.
It aims to predict the pandemic scientifically for the authorities to adopt effective prevention and control measures, according to Lanzhou University in Northwest China’s Gansu Province, which called the system “the world’s first predictor for COVID-19.”
The system was developed by the university’s Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety. It will be updated every 10 days.
The system offers daily predictions of the number of confirmed cases globally and in 180 countries and regions in June. According to the system, the number of new daily global cases will continue to rise in June, and is predicted to reach nearly 250,000 globally by June 30.
The US will see a new daily case increase of around 30,000 every day in June, while major countries in Europe will witness a continuous drop in new daily cases, predicted the system.
“The system offers a onemonth prediction, and scientists plan to predict the pandemic for two to six months,” said the center.
In recent days, the world recorded nearly 100,000 new infections daily, while daily new cases in the US approached 10,000.
The infection figures used to establish the system are from Johns Hopkins University, and meteorological data, such as humidity and temperature, comes from NASA and other institutes, the center told the Global Times.
Environmental temperature and variations of nitrogen dioxide concentration in the atmosphere are two important indicators for predictions on the COVID-19 pandemic. About 60 percent of confirmed global COVID-19 cases occurred in places with a temperature of 5 to 15 C. The pandemic spreads to high latitude in spring and summer, and mid-latitude countries face risks of a second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic this autumn, the research showed.
The variations of nitrogen dioxide concentration obtained from satellites can reflect the effectiveness of prevention and control measures implemented by governments.