Beijing’s latest outbreak may occur a month earlier: expert

Chinese experts differ on when the new outbreak in Beijing began and where exactly the virus originated. In the latest speculation, Gao Fu, director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese CDC), said the outbreak probably did not occur in early June or late May, but probably a month earlier.

“A lot of asymptomatic or mild cases were detected in this outbreak and that is why the environment has such amount of virus,” said Gao at a seminar in Shanghai on Tuesday, media reported.

The novel coronavirus will lurk in some dark, humid, polluted environments, which may be unexpected. After that, it will suddenly be exposed to many people within a certain period of time. But such speculation needs further verification, Gao said.

Different from Gao, Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the Chinese CDC, told media on Monday that the COVID-19 cluster centered at Beijing Xinfadi Market may have begun as early as late May.

Wu has said the outbreak in Xinfadi Market is similar to the epidemic in Wuhan’s Huanan seafood market. These markets are cold and wet places, which are very suitable for viruses to survive.

Yang Zhanqiu, deputy director of the pathogen biology department at Wuhan University, believes that this latest outbreak may have begun in early June. As the incubation period for the virus is about six days, with the longest being 14 days, the first confirmed patient was probably infected in early June.

“The relationship between confirmed patients and asymptomatic patients is just like an iceberg. On the top of the iceberg are confirmed cases, while asymptomatic cases are at the bottom. The two kinds of patients exist at the same time and the difference is that the asymptomatic patients have not showed symptoms yet,” Yang said.

Yang predicted that as the capital has beefed up measures to curb the virus from spreading, the situation will be controlled within two weeks or maybe even one.

Zeng Guang, chief epidemiologist of the Chinese CDC, is also optimistic about the situation. Zeng believes that the latest COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing will soon reach its peak. He predicted that if the public continues to uphold the country’s prevention and control measures, it will subside in around one month.