New cold war looms, but ties not very frosty
takes and continues to deepen its reform and opening-up, the US will not be able to curb China’s development. The key is for China to do its own thing well.
Among the surveyed Chinese scholars, 19 percent believe that the US is able to contain China’s rise. But some do believe that US containment of China is partial and not comprehensive. In other words, the US will only affect China’s development to a certain extent.
Zhou Xiaojing, former director of the Asian-African Research Institute, Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that since Trump took office, the US government has mobilized almost all means of containment except military means. So far, the US has been unable to contain China’s development. The US strategic process to contain China will continue for 10-20 years in her estimation. During this period of time, how to effectively respond to the US containment will largely determine the process of China’s rise and its national rejuvenation.
Although the US cannot contain China’s rise in an all-round way, 58 percent of Chinese scholars believe China and the US can break out of the “Thucydides Trap.” Only 27 percent think China and the US cannot do this.
Tu Xinquan, director of China Institute for WTO Studies at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, believes that the common foundation of China-US relations is disintegrating one by one. He sees an increasing possibility of China and the US falling into the “Thucydides Trap.”
The US believes the common foundation of China-US relations is disappearing. First, in terms of national security, ChinaUS
relations began in the 1970s with the common security needs of both sides to confront the perceived threat of the Soviet Union. Now, instead of a common security threat, the two sides have serious security conflicts with each other. Second, in terms of ideology, China not only has stopped moving closer to the US model, but also is running counter to the US and challenging US authority worldwide. Third, in terms of economic interests, the US contends that the ChinaUS trade deficit harms the manufacturing base of the US and that the US investment in China has led to the hollowing-out of US industry. It also believes that China’s technological progress depends on stealing, copying, learning and buying US intellectual property.
Tu believes that from a Chinese standpoint, China doesn’t have the intention to challenge the US hegemony or leadership. China’s defense policy is defensive rather than offensive in nature, with no intention of pushing the US out of Asia. However, from a practical point of view, there is a huge difference in the discourse system between the two countries. They cannot understand each other or trust each other. China now believes that the US is deliberately suppressing China in order to maintain its hegemony. No matter what China does and how it does, the US will continue to suppress China. The US, on the other hand, has regarded China as an imaginary enemy that wants to overtake the US to become the world’s dominant power.
Tu also said that so far we cannot see the possibility that both countries are able to change their views on each other. Neither of them has the intention to actively change their views, or to take actions to alter the other side’s views about themselves. Of course, this does not mean that China and the US will completely decouple any time soon. But the two sides are already engaged in the most serious conflict since 1972 in areas of trade, science, technology, diplomacy and others. It’s foreseeable that the conflict will continue to escalate and expand.
In the questionnaire, the research group also asked the 100 Chinese scholars what they thought of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. As is known to all, Pompeo has been recognized as the vanguard of the US’ anti-China campaign. Some Chinese scholars believe that Pompeo’s actions can be explained from the US perspective. But from China’s point of view, Pompeo is an unqualified diplomat, with 85 percent of scholars giving him a failing grade (5 or less). He Weiwen, former economic and commercial counselor at Chinese Consulate General in San Francisco and New York, said that as the chief diplomat of the US, Pompeo does not have the professional qualities of a diplomat or the responsibilities of great power diplomacy.
“So far, the US has been unable to contain China’s development. The US strategic process to contain China will continue for 10-20 years.”
Zhou Xiaojing
He believes that since Pompeo became the US secretary of state, he has not played any positive role. With Pompeo at the helm, the Iran nuclear issue, Israel-Palestine relations and the handling of the Korean nuclear issue have all failed and been destructive.
In summary, most of the 100 scholars believe that the “cold” relationship between China and the US is inevitable. They also believe it is impossible to return to a US-Soviet pattern of frosty confrontation. In the face of the US containment, as long as China does not make subversive mistakes, China’s rise is unstoppable.
Chinese scholars should be able to shape the public opinion of the US.
Wang Wen, the planner and designer of the questionnaire, is the executive dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China and executive director of China-US People-to-People Exchange Research Center. He revealed that the idea for the project originated from his column “US launches Scold War, not Cold War” on the Global Times. Several American scholars have acknowledged in private letters that the term “Scold War” is interesting and reasonable. But they also said that the prospect of a cold war is mounting.
Wang believes that Chinese scholars should exert certain shaping power over American public opinion. He said if academic circles in both countries believe that the new cold war is not good for their own country’s interests, they should speak out boldly and reverse pessimistic public opinion as much as possible.
Jia Qingguo, a professor with the School of International Relations at Peking University, said the questionnaire is quite meaningful. The survey reflects that everyone is relatively pessimistic about the relationship between China and the US. The current findings don’t fully reflect the future, and pessimism doesn’t necessarily mean the future will be bad. It’s important to think about what we should do in the future, based on the results of the survey.