Thucydides paradox a trap for the Aussies

The Thucydides Trap is a term mostly used to describe the current dynamic of China- US ties. It is also quietly being applied to narrate Beijing- Canberra relations lately, due to soaring tensions between the two. Some observers and media outlets have started to ask: Is there an emerging Thucydides Trap between China and Australia?

To some extent, such analysis makes sense. As the US is a global hegemony, Australia can be regarded as a minor hegemon, or secondary hegemon in the Asia- Pacific, especially South Pacific. When China emerges, regional power will feel the stress first. That’s why Japan believed it was threatened in the 1990s; it sensed China’s rise breaking the previous geopolitical structure in East Asia.

Now, it is Australia’s time to be a nervous nellie. Former US president George W. Bush once hailed Australia as its “deputy sheriff” in the Asia- Pacific region. Thanks to Australia’s geographical location, the US has granted Australia the authority to deal with minor regional issues, covering Southeast Asia and the South Pacific, as the region is too far away for Uncle Sam to concern.

For some time, Australia can be argued as a hegemon in the area. But this is all because of US support. Without US strong backing, few countries would take Canberra seriously. For instance, Indonesia has long held resentment over Australia’s sprawling maritime claims, but it has no other alternative toward Australia other than making compromise over border disputes, because it is afraid the US would send troops to back up

Australia.

In terms of the containment against China, the US and its allies are closely coordinating with each other. On global issues, the US takes the lead, such as organizing largescale military exercises in the Pacific Ocean and promoting the QUAD, a security grouping comprising the US, Japan, India and Australia. On smaller cases, Australia often makes frontal attacks.

This is how Western countries cooperate. That’s why, from a bigger perspective, the US and its allies, including the UK, France, Germany and Australia, have been taking turns to charge forward with attacks against China. These internal matters concern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Tibet Autonomous Region, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, human rights, to name a few.

But all in all, they must follow the US lead. What would happen otherwise? Take former Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull. His administration decided to lease the Port of Darwin to a Chinese company. This made then US president Barack Obama furious, believing the lease jeopardized his rebalance to the Asia- Pacific. The Australian Financial Review covered the US response over the case with a headline, “‘ Let us know next time’: How Obama chided Turnbull over Darwin port sale.” The incident made Washington very dissatisfied with Canberra. Not long after, Turnbull was forced to resign. This is a microcosm of US influence in Australia.

If the US completely withdraws from the Asia- Pacific region, and China continues to rise sharply, Australia’s previous status and economic interests in the region will be in jeopardy. That’s why Canberra is anxious while becoming proactive to gang up with Washington against Beijing.

From the perception of theories about international relations, security interests are superior, while economic interests are in a lower level category. Washington believes that as long as it defeats Beijing, it will gain more interest and reap benefits from markets worldwide. It will suffer losses during the process, but it tends to believe those are necessary pains, because once China is brought to its knees, the whole world will be at the US mercy.

That being said, future US administration’s China policies will play a major role in the entire development of ties between China and the West. It can be anticipated that Joe Biden will revitalize US global alliances and restore US- EU ties. This signals a severe long- term strategic test for China. As for whether China and Australia will fall into a Thucydides Trap, the key lies in the China- US relationship. For the moment, all Australia has been doing is winning US support and appreciation.