Lessons for China from US COVID- 19 crisis
Editor’s Note:
The US Electoral College has formalized the election of Joe Biden for the final tallying and approval by the US Congress on January 6, 2021. In this period of transition, voices are urgently asking what might become of the China- US relationship once Biden takes office. Will the world's two largest economies recover their ties? Reset them in certain spheres? Will the West further intensify its aggressive anti- China campaign? Zheng Yongnian ( Zheng), Presidential Chair Professor, Director of The Advanced Institute of Global and Contemporary China Studies, The Chinese University of Hong Kong ( Shenzhen), shared his views on these issues with Global Times ( GT) reporter Xu Hailin in a telephone interview.
GT: COVID- 19 and this year’s presidential election have revealed increasingly severe divisions in the US. Some people believe this could mean a window of opportunity for China. What’s your take? Zheng: The epidemic in the US is a crisis. But other countries’ crisis does not necessarily equal our opportunity. We should draw a lesson from what the US is undergoing and why US society is so divided. The US benefited from hyper- globalization, but it simultaneously began to have problems in governance and see its society more and more split. The middle class has shrunk sharply in the US along with unbalanced income and wealth distribution. At the same time, US society has become much more unfair. Over 70 percent of Americans were middle class in 1969. This percentage has been shrinking since the 1980s, from nearly 60 percent of households in the late 1970s to a bit more than 51 percent by 2013. This is the root cause of real divisions in the US.
The priority of China should be to draw lessons from it. From the 14th Five- Year Plan ( 2021- 25) and the fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist
Party of China, we can see that China has determined to help more people move into the middle class. This is an important move. We have reached the historical feat of resolving extreme poverty in November. This will be very important to increase middleclass population. This is what we have learned from the US.
Of course, there will be opportunities for China, but not due to the crises in the US. Although we shouldn’t harbor any illusions that the Biden administration will radically change domestic and international attitudes toward China, we still need to grab any opportunity we may have.
In my personal opinion, President Donald Trump made an irrationally tough stance on China. Biden’s policies, regardless of how tough some might be toward China, will be rational overall. In fact, the two countries have a lot of common interests. Trump tried to push “decoupling” between the two and engaged in trade protectionism as well as economic nationalism. But it is evident that such moves have also badly hurt the US itself. This doesn’t meet US interests. Trump totally failed to make good on his promise to “Make America Great Again,” instead he lost himself by erroneously attacking China.
GT: So in your opinion, during Biden’s tenure, China and the US will restore their relationship, and also be able to restart the engine in some spheres, won’t they?
Zheng: They will. Actually, issues like climate change, COVID- 19 pandemic, and proliferation of nuclear weapons are problems faced by all humanity and all countries – including the US and China. The Trump administration has ignored some global issues, but Biden, who has been in politics for decades and also served as vice president for years, has a deeper understanding of these issues.
And it bodes well that Biden’s picks for his administration have worked with him during the Obama presidency. They have witnessed how the Trump administration pulled China- US ties into stalemate. They know confrontation and antagonism cannot solve the US own problems but instead deteriorate them. Shirking responsibilities onto China’s shoulders, such as accusing China for trade problems and the COVID- 19 pandemic, as the Trump administration did, is no cure to the US’ chronic diseases. I think the Biden team will have some introspection after seeing what happened to the US over the past four years. They will try to figure out a way that is good for the US. Of course, they won’t do anything solely for the good of China as a gift without strings attached. But as they will think rationally, there will be good chances of changes in US policies.
GT: You just mentioned that we shouldn’t harbor any illusions over Biden either. Whereas Trump has repeatedly squeezed room for Biden to maneuver, what’s your take on Biden’s possible China policies? Especially regarding the South China Sea and Taiwan issues?
Zheng: It is getting complicated. Attacking China won’t solve any of the US’s domestic problems. It will only worsen it. But if China- US ties can be handled with reasonable hands, it might somehow be a relief to the US. After all, China is a growing consumer market with an increasingly large capacity. The US remains to be a big manufacturer. The Chinese market is indispensable to the US. Losing this market adds insult to US injury. Disputes such as a addressed, trade aa deficits but not can with be aa trade war – it is too aai a
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Besides, Trump has left very bad legacies to Biden. These will be a constraint. The problem is that Trump has motivated China hawks in the US who will not go “poof” and magic cally disappear when B Biden is sworn in. They will linger and antagonize. From this perspective, before the new president officially assumes power, China and the US are more likely to be engaged in crisis management.
Regardless of US policies on the South China Sea and Taiwan, China should take a hands on initiative. These are mainly China’s issue and questions, not the US’. Washington will make troubles over them though. It is impossible for the US to do anything conducive to cross- Straits reunification or for peace in the South China Sea. But China is capable of handling these matters judiciously. The Taiwan question is the core interest of China. So China won’t concede over it. No Western country, including the US, will help China to achieve reunification, so we should have the initiative to address the question firmly in our hands. And as I just said, China is capable of settling it. But for the Chinese mainland, crisis management is not enough – we must set our own agenda.