Spring Festival travel rush to scale down amid virus resurgence
As more Chinese provinces and cities have released tightened travel guidelines, some of which are intended to dissuade migrant workers from returning to their hometowns during the upcoming Spring Festival, industry insiders and experts expect that this year’s chunyun travel rush, which is normally the world’s largest human migration, will be affected by the current epidemic control measures, following the latest coronavirus resurgence in northern regions, and that it will weigh on first-quarter economic performance.
However, as China has accumulated extensive experience in regular epidemic prevention work over the past year with its increasingly precise COVID-19 response, in addition to accelerating mass vaccination among key groups, the upcoming travel season will not trigger largescale spikes in new COVID-19 cases as long as the public strictly follows the rules.
Dozens of provinces, municipalities and cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen in South China’s Guangdong, Central China’s Henan and Hubei provinces have issued notices suggesting the public to avoid “unnecessary travel back to hometown” during the Spring Festival holiday, encouraging employees to spend the holiday at the places where they work. Some places also ramped up restrictions, for example, civil servants and employees of the State-owned companies in cities like Beijing and Shenzhen should take the lead to stay in cities where they
work during the holiday.
The 2021 Spring Festival travel rush will kick off on January 28, lasting for 40 days until March 8. Pre-sales of train tickets started on December 30, according to the national rail operator. While the country is being prepared to safely deliver 407 million passenger trips during the 40-day travel rush with 10.18 million daily passenger trip expected, China State Railway Group issued a separate notice on Wednesday on free refunds for pre-sale tickets purchased before the date, given the multiple sporadic outbreaks in different regions. The latest move is also part of efforts to reduce mobility and gatherings.
More restrictions
Chinese transport departments and operators are now adjusting their policies given that epidemic prevention work has been increasingly challenging due to sporadic cases and the cold weather. More cities are imposing new restrictions for incoming travelers, remaining on high alert in fending off the growing risks caused by accelerating movements of people.
Wuhan, capital of Hubei Province that was the first place to report COVID-19 last winter, said in a notice on Saturday that for all people returning to Wuhan from low-risk areas in other parts of China, seven-day-valid negative nucleic acid test results are required. Body temperature checks and health codes are also mandatory.
“It’s not correct to say that the Chinese government encourages cancelling this year’s chunyun. Different places are taking different approaches while the situation in Beijing and Shijiazhuang are quite particular, so this year’s Spring Festival travel rush would be certainly affected,” said Zeng Guang, chief epidemiologist of China CDC.
The Chinese public needs to remain cautious during this year’s Spring Festival, as the virus transmission is not only related to the virus itself but also epidemic prevention work, and as long as people strictly follow the regulations, there will not be a large-scale spike in new cases, Zeng noted.
Well prepared
As the epidemic situation seemed to become more severe in recent days, it’s hard to estimate this year’s travel rush situation, a source close to China’s railway operator told the Global Times on Sunday, acknowledging that it would very likely be affected by latest resurgence.
With a reduced willingness to travel and more travel restrictions, some online travel platforms said there are still plane tickets available for Spring Festival travel routes – which used to be sold out within days as millions of people need to travel during the period. “The peak time for Spring Festival ticket sales is yet to come,” domestic travel platform Qunar.com told the Global Times on Sunday.
Reduced travel, restrictions on gatherings and stay-at-home orders will also weigh on domestic consumption, a major pillar for GDP growth. However, industry insiders and economists foresee a better-than-expected performance compared to the Spring Festival in 2020 as the country is now well prepared for sporadic cases, and the mass vaccination campaign has begun with more than nine million doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been given so far across the country.