China hopes for stable, peaceful Myanmar: FM
Domestic dialogue needed; interference warned amid political uproar
The Myanmar military on Monday announced that new elections will be held when a one- year state of emergency ends, and it will return the state power to the new government. The military said that during the state of emergency, the Union Election Commission will be reformed and the result of the country’s parliamentary elections will be reviewed.
Myanmar’s military announced a state of emergency few hours earlier on Monday and said power had been handed to the commander- in- chief of the armed forces, following the military’s detention of Myanmar’s senior leaders including Aung San Suu Kyi and President U Win Myint.
Western media see it as a de facto coup, as the power transition occurred just hours before
Myanmar’s newly elected parliament was supposed to begin its opening session, meaning a confirmation of the November election result.
Wang Wenbin, spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said
on Monday’s routine press briefing that China has noticed Myanmar’s situation and are seeking further information.
“China is a friendly neighbor of Myanmar, and we hope all parties in Myanmar can properly handle differences under the constitutional and legal framework and safeguard political and social stability,” Wang noted.
Experts said the military’s actions can be seen as an adjustment to the country’s imbalanced power structure. China has maintained good relations with both the current government and the military, and it hopes that the two sides can reach a compromise through negotiations to maintain peace and stability. Experts also noted the country should be wary of possible external interference.
State of discord
Over the past five years of the National League for Democracy ( NLD) rule, the army and the NLD have been in a state of discord, a Beijingbased expert told the Global Times on Monday on condition of anonymity.
Since the 2015 election, the military- backed Union Solidarity and Development Party ( USDP) had been defeated in elections and lost seats in parliament, which made the military realize that it is very difficult to obtain power through elections, the expert said.
“The military’s actions, therefore, can be viewed as an adjustment facing Myanmar’s imbalanced power structure,” he said.
Analysts said that it remains to be seen whether the military will yield to international pressure. The detention of governing leaders may trigger resentment among NLD supporters, and even a social backlash that will put pressure on the regime, especially amid the ongoing COVID- 19 pandemic. In a statement the NLD party released on Monday on behalf of its detained leader Aung San Suu Kyi, it urged people not to accept a military coup and should protest, Reuters reported.
Yin Yihang, a scholar from the Beijing- based think tank Taihe Institute, said that while the military has detained Aung San Suu Kyi and other senior NLD officials, it has been unable to fully control grass- roots NLD members, with further protests by NLD groups anticipated.
“Now the NLD has developed into a fully fledged party organization, ranging from the federal to the township level. After the military takeover, it will be difficult for the NLD to remain quiet,” Yin said.
US involvement?
According to US media, White House press secretary Jen Psaki responded on Monday ( ET Sunday) by saying that the US was “alarmed” by the situation in Myanmar, warning Myanmar’s military that it will “take action” if they proceed with an “apparent coup” against the country’s civilian leaders.
However, some experts mentioned that former US president Donald Trump, who refused to admit his election defeat and reportedly incited the Capitol riots, might be the Myanmar military’s inspiration.
Fan Hongwei, director of the Center for Southeast Asia Studies at Xiamen University, said that the US may impose sanctions on Myanmar, and military pressure cannot be rolled out.
The Trump administration, while being concerned about Vietnam and
Malaysia, was not so concerned about Myanmar. During the Obama administration, the US paid great attention to Myanmar based on the US’ AsiaPacific rebalancing strategy, analysts said.
Yin Yihang said that although the US had limited official exchanges with Myanmar during the Trump administration, US civil rights groups have maintained a presence in northern Myanmar, radicalizing local people. “As per the current situation, US may also adopt a ‘ color revolution’ approach to Myanmar,” Yin said.
“The situation in Myanmar is likely to be an opportunity for the Biden administration, which has multiple members from Team Obama, to repair relations with Myanmar, to make Myanmar problematic and to use Myanmar to put pressure on China,” Fan said.
“China has maintained good relations with both the current government and the military, so it still hopes that the two sides can negotiate a compromise to maintain peace and stability,” Fan noted.
An employee of a Chinese company surnamed Liu in Yangon, the commercial capital of the country, told the Global Times that life is still relatively normal. While mobile signals have been cut off, the network signals are still functioning. “The market is still open, we feel everything is stable. The China- Myanmar pipeline project is operating normally, as are other copper and nickel mines.”
The impact of the political upheaval on most Chinese companies’ operations in Myanmar is limited, as most Chinese firms are based in Yangon, not the capital of Naypyidaw, another employee surnamed Zheng, from a state- owned company based in Yangon, told the Global Times.