German new admin takes steps in forming China policy

Although the Social Democratic Party of Germany ( SPD), The Greens and the Free Democratic Party ( FDP) have agreed to proceed from exploratory talks to coalition negotiations over establishing a new German administration, a positive for a stable transition, experts pointed to the possible risk and influence of an unclear China policy.

German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said on Friday that the three parties had secured the basic principles for an alliance, and they would hold formal negotiations on the details as soon as possible. Scholz said on Wednesday that Germany was likely to have a new administration before Christmas, Reuters reported.

Through negotiation and compromise, the three parties have concluded agreements on multiple sectors, including climate goals, industrial renewal and tax and debt brakes, German media reported. According to German media, FDP leader Christian Lindner said the negotiation offered new possibilities, and “marks a break with Germany’s past political culture,” which has attracted attention from Chinese observers.

Cui Hongjian, director of the Department of European Studies at China Institute of International Studies, said on Sunday that among the threeway alliance, although China policy is not the key consideration of the three parties in current coalition negotiations, the Green Party and the FDP emphasize reform and change.

“Although the three parties share some common ground on EU strategic autonomy, the FDP and the Greens prefer to strengthen the socalled alliance of democracy and values. As a more experienced party in ruling, the SDP is more about ensuring the continuity of Germany’s EU and external policies,” Sun Keqin, a research fellow at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, told the Global Times on Sunday.

The biggest variable affecting Germany’s China policy is the US, Sun said, noting it remains to be seen how far the new German government will go with the climate and human rights cards to put pressure on China, catering to the US.

As for the decision- making of the three- way alliance, the foreign policy decision- making may fall into more internal games and reduced efficiency. And in the absence of an authoritative figure such as outgoing German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the risk of repeated policy conflicts will increase, Cui said.