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For some time, with the US trumpeting its intended “decoupling” from China, Japan, as a US ally, seems to be exploring the possibility of such a proposition. In this regard, some Japanese media outlets are concerned that Japan would have a lot to
In August, Honda launched a topsecret project which was aimed at large-scale supply chain restructuring to explore the possibility of manufacturing cars and motorcycles without dependence on China-made parts, Japanese media including Nikkei Asia reported.
“Are companies prepared for ‘zero-China’ ?” Nikkei Asia asked.
Many Japanese media outlets analyzed that Honda doesn’t currently envision a supply chain that is separate from China, but it wants to mitigate potential risks by creating a contingency plan should anything happen.
Honda’s response is somewhat representative of the Japanese business community. Several Japanese executives speaking on condition of anonymity told the Global Times that told the Global Times that the Japanese government plans to include the concept of “economic security” in its national security strategy, essentially expanding the scope of security and intentionally keeping pace with the US to keep China in check economically. From a business perspective, not only do these businessmen not want the “decoupling” reform, but they look forward to further deepening their economic engagement with China.
Many Japanese entrepreneurs noted that Japan is facing increasingly serious problems such as a sharply declining birthrate and an aging population, cooperation with China is the most feasible solution for the country to achieve exponential economic growth again. The Japanese business community cannot ignore the potential risks involved when Japan’s national policy is about to change, so most companies are trying to do business with China normally while preparing for possible risks and creating a “Plan B” to remain standing.
In an interview with the Global Times, Tomoo Marukawa, a professor at the University of Tokyo’s Institute of Social Science, said that the JapanChina economic relations are extensive and deep. China’s total GDP in 2021 was about 3.4 times that of Japan, with China’s foreign trade volume outperforming Japan’s four times over. Marukawa lose if the country does follow through.
The Global Times recently spoke with a number of Japanese economists and business executives who believe that “the full ‘decoupling’ of the Japanese and Chinese economies will be extremely costly, and both countries may lose in the end,” “normal economic and trade cooperation should not be
believes that it is clear from this data set that it would clearly hurt Japan more to assume a disruption of trade between Japan and
China.
“If it does ‘decouple’ from China, Japan’s losses will be felt in many ways,” Marukawa said.
First, Japan will lose many kinds of important sources for daily household goods such as electric lamps, cell phones, televisions, refrigerators, furniture, clothing, toys, face masks, and foodstuffs such as buckwheat and vegetables. While Japan is not 100 percent dependent on China for the supply of these products, sources outside of China are either limited in supply or costly.
Second, Japan would lose its main export destination, Marukawa pointed out. He noted that Japan exports semiconductors, chemicals, and many other products to China. “‘Decoupling’ from China means that Japan would lose its most important export market, and this loss would be difficult to make up in other markets,” he said.
According to Japanese statistics, China has been Japan’s largest trading used as a ‘pawn in political chess,’” and “Japanese companies do not want to be held hostage by the so-called political interests.”
These voices from the front line fully demonstrate that it is neither realistic nor feasible for the Japanese economy to afford to “decouple” from China. partner since 2007. When talking about the cost of separation from China, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun published a front-page article on October 18 stating that cutting off imports from China would cost Japan 53 trillion yen ($353 billion) in lost revenue, which is equivalent to 10 percent of Japan’s annual GDP going up in a puff of smoke.