Chinese economy to forge ahead in 2024
Nation remains vital support for global recovery: economists
While the global economy faced significant recovery pressures in 2023, China’s economy showed remarkable resilience. Analysts have taken stock of highlights in the country’s economy and estimated that GDP growth would have exceeded 5 percent in 2023, noting that the world’s secondlargest economy will continue to forge ahead in 2024 despite choppy waters.
China is set to release its 2023 GDP figure on Wednesday. Ahead of this highly anticipated statistic figure, domestic and foreign economists reached out by Global Times reporters over the past week said that GDP growth last year would probably have exceeded 5 percent.
During a Friday interview with the Global Times, Yu Xiang rong, Citi’s chief economist for China, highlighted bright spots in China’s performance over the past year, including the accelerated recovery of the services sector, improvements in the export chain and the rapid development of high-end manufacturing.
“My estimate for China’s 2023 GDP data is ‘above 5 percent,’” John Ross, a senior fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China and former director of economic and business policy for the mayor of London, told the Global Times on Thursday.
“Growth was already 4.9 percent in the third quarter and momentum increased in the fourth quarter with industrial production rising 6.6 percent in November and retail sales rising by 10.1 percent in the same month,” Ross said.
“My estimate for 2023 GDP growth is 5.4 percent. Fourthquarter GDP will likely be a surprise on the back of strong industrial production and the low base [in the previous year],” Xing Zhaopeng, senior China strategist with ANZ Research, told the Global Times on Thursday.
On Friday, the General Administration of Customs (GAC) released China’s foreign trade data for 2023, revealing trends that exceeded expectations. Total trade grew 0.2 percent yearon-year to 41.76 trillion yuan ($5.83 trillion).
GAC deputy head Wang Lingjun told a press conference that “last year, China’s imports and exports performed ‘better than expected,’ and it is expected to maintain its position as the world’s largest goods trading nation for the seventh consecutive year.”
Despite continuous attempts by foreign media outlets to paint a negative picture of China’s economic recovery, economists have expressed confidence to reporters in the nation’s ability to continue moving forward against the headwinds.
“In 2024, I anticipate China’s GDP growth rate to be in the range of 5.3 to 5.5 percent,” Cao Heping, an economist at Peking University, told the Global Times on Friday.
“The inherent strength of China’s economic growth remains robust, especially with the emergence of new driving forces,” Cao said, adding that another factor is the high-tech industry, where unexpected surprises, such as in the automotive and new-energy sectors, might unfold in 2024.