Bad news: CO2 emissions on the rise

ENERGY sector carbon emissions will rise in 2018 after hitting record levels last year, dimming prospects for meeting Paris climate treaty goals, the head of the International Energy Agency says.

The energy sector accounts for 80 percent of global CO2 emissions, with most of the rest caused by deforestation and agriculture, so its performance is key to efforts to rein in rising temperatures.

“I’m sorry, I have very bad news for you,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told guests at a diplomatic function in Paris on Wednesday.

“Emissions this year will increase once again, and we’re going to have the COP meeting when global emissions reach a record high,” he said, referring to the December UN climate summit in Katowice, Poland.

After remaining flat for three years, total global CO2 emissions in 2017 rose by 1.4 percent, dashing hopes that they had peaked. The meeting in Katowice is tasked with finalizing the “operating manual” for the 195-nation Paris Agreement, which enters into force in 2020 and calls for capping global warming at “well below” 2 degrees Celsius, and at 1.5 degrees if possible.

“The chances of meeting such ambitious targets, in my view, are becoming weaker and weaker every year, every month,” Birol told invitees, including former French prime minister Laurent Fabius, who shepherded the 2015 treaty to a successful conclusion, and Poland’s junior minister Michal Kurtyka, who will preside over the December summit.

With 1 degree Celsius of warming so far, the Earth has seen a crescendo of deadly extreme weather, including heatwaves, droughts, floods and deadly storm surges made worse by rising seas. Even taking into account voluntary national pledges to slash carbon emissions, the planet is on track to warm by an unlivable 3-4 degrees Celsius by century’s end.