KMT electoral success start of battle to better cross-strait ties

The Kuomintang’s defeat of the Democratic Progressive Party in Saturday’s local elections in Taiwan, which prompted Tsai Ing-wen, the island’s president, to resign as head of the DPP, marks a significant change in the island’s political climate.

The “blue wave” signifies the Taiwanese people’s distaste for the DPP’s bellicose rhetoric against the mainland and the desire to refocus on domestic issues. Some suggest it sets the stage for the island’s 2024 federal election. The KMT’s big win was somewhat surprising, given its relative weakness both domestically and internationally. Over the years, the DPP has outmanoeuvred the KMT, while the KMT’s internal jostling fragmented its messaging.

Internationally, the US favoured the DPP and used it to inflame cross-strait tensions, as manifested in greater military support for Taiwan and high-level political visits. Nevertheless, the KMT has shown it can still garner the support of the people of Taiwan. Will this be enough to secure the KMT’s future? For stable cross-strait relations and adherence to the one-China principle, KMT viability is critical.

With the DPP in power in Taiwan, the US deployed strategic ambiguity masterfully, dialling provocation towards the mainland up or down at will. However, strategic ambiguity may not have the same effect on the KMT as it has had on the DPP, and thus the US will have to reconsider its strategy should the KMT defeat the DPP in 2024. The KMT, even if it can win in the future, could be tied down by heavy domestic troubles instigated by the DPP and possibly the KMT’s own intraparty grievances. Self-renewal and connecting with the electorate is critical. The new era requires fresh thinking to solve difficult issues which carry historical baggage.

So, while the KMT may be the party to set the conditions for improved cross-strait ties, this is truly an uphill battle. Thinking across the strait needs to expand beyond the status quo in pursuit of enduring order and peace.