Six steps China can take to move past ‘zero-Covid’
Edmund Lim says growing turmoil and protests in mainland cities show now is the time to move beyond restrictive measures and towards endeavours to live with Covid-19
Tension and dissatisfaction with the handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and the government are rising in several Chinese cities. Before further turmoil breaks out, here are six suggestions to help improve the situation.
First, there needs to be a truthful acknowledgement of the present situation. In the second half of 2020, President Xi Jinping and his team managed to control the spread of Covid-19.
However, more contagious variants have developed and Covid-19 cases are rapidly spreading throughout the country. The “dynamic zero-Covid” policy can no longer work. A successful change of strategy, with sound plans, is required.
Second, there should be clear communication of an effective plan for the path ahead. Xi has long been an advocate of a zero-Covid policy. In many ways, this approach has helped limit the spread of the virus. However, there have been high economic costs, as well as serious impact on people’s well-being and constraints on living.
It would be timely to embark on a scientific, methodical change of approach beyond the recent initial measures such as reducing the quarantine period. The plan and subsequent steps, along with the cost-benefit analysis, should be presented clearly to the people.
Third, there must be quality leadership, sufficient time and adequate resources allocated to execute an effective plan, which will take at least nine months to properly implement. In the battle against the pandemic, leaders at all levels need to be united and committed to efforts to help as many in their community and country as possible. Citizens, including the elderly, should be educated, persuaded and guided to get high-quality vaccinations and boosters.
The price of not going for vaccinations could be death or severe illnesses for the unvaccinated, especially for the sick or weaker senior citizens. People need to be prepared and even reminded that the price of opening up the country could be more deaths and illnesses linked to Covid-19, especially for the unvaccinated.
The price of not going for vaccinations could be death or severe illnesses for the unvaccinated
Fourth, as an expansion of the third point, China needs to have enough effective vaccines, boosters and vaccination centres for its more than 1 billion citizens. China should produce and purchase enough vaccines for the extensive vaccination plan to be implemented across the country. Its special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau appear to be managing relatively better.
About 30 per cent of Chinese citizens above the age of 60 have not yet received their third dose of vaccination. In addition to producing its own vaccines, China should consider buying vaccines in overseas markets to complement its own supplies.
Fifth, with the opening up of China, hospitals and healthcare facilities need to be ready for increases in the number of patients suffering from Covid-19 and related illnesses. China’s intensive care unit capacity is much lower than other Asian countries such as South Korea, Japan and Singapore.
Younger, relatively healthier people who get infected can recover and quarantine at home with proper guidance, support and medical aid. This will reduce the burden on hospitals.
These measures will take at least three to six months to implement in phases before herd immunity rises and the waves of infections subside. Consistent, capable efforts are essential to overcome this challenge in a large country such as China.
Finally, China’s leaders need the understanding and support of citizens and leaders at all levels as they work to implement well-calibrated yet flexible measures.
Given the circumstances, one can understand the reasons the “zero-Covid” approach was introduced more than two years ago. But with Xi leading China for another five years, now is the time to move beyond zero-Covid measures towards endeavours to overcome and live with Covid-19.
The successful implementation of this exit plan and the opening up of China will take at least half a year. Xi needs to win the hearts and minds of the people to successfully overcome this significant challenge to save lives and revive the economy while maintaining control and progressing towards a better future.
Edmund Lim is an executive director at a global cybersecurity education company. He has also served as a district councillor in Singapore