Same old doom-mongers catch another cold in Covid protests

Common sense goes missing in headlines forewarning the collapse of China after voices seeking end to tough virus measures heard in cities

The wisest and most informed prediction on the Covid protests in China comes from a tweet by William Hurst, Chong Hua Professor of Chinese Development at the University of Cambridge.

It reads: “The most likely scenario I can see is that the protests fizzle out (as most such movements do in most countries). Having erupted spontaneously in a short period, they will fade away without reaching any climax or denouement.”

It’s the single tweet that beats a thousand nonsensical and exaggerated commentaries from pundits, politicians and self-styled experts in the United States, Australia, Canada and Britain.

You know those “the sky is falling on China” headlines, typical and entirely predictable whenever there are disturbances in Hong Kong or mainland China: “Are China’s lockdown protests the beginning of the end for Xi Jinping?”; “Xi Versus the Street. The Protests in China Could

Herald a Turbulent New Era”; “China’s Protests Punch a Hole in Xi’s Credibility: A new wave of social unrest may be here”; “Echoes of 1989: where the protests go next”; “In China, everyone is one step from becoming a dissident – and zero-Covid has pushed many to make that final step”.

I could go on and on. But let me just add two more of my favourites. Both are from the ever reliable anti-China opinion page of the Telegraph in London: “China’s lockdown nightmare has become Xi Jinping’s Ukraine war”. What? I thought Xi’s Ukraine war was the mainland’s invasion of Taiwan, any day now. You know, monkey see, monkey do. If Putin invades, Xi must do the same. But, now it’s Covid?

Another one is “This may be a turning point in China’s history. The West must not miss it”, written by none other than Benedict Rogers, propagandist-in-chief of Hong Kong Watch. Love the headline summary: “There is much democracies can do. If Xi unleashes guns and tanks on protesters, he must expect decoupling, sanctions and total pariah status.”

The Gordon Changs of the world with their “Coming Collapse of China” narrative inevitably all come out of the woodwork in times like this. We are just starting to recover from the scaremongering over Taiwan. And before that, there were warnings about Tiananmen 2.0 with the half-year anti-government riots and violent protests in Hong Kong back in 2019; many Western “experts” predicted the People’s Liberation Army would roll in the tanks. Now, Rogers is back again, warning against PLA tanks.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said China’s protest crackdowns pose a challenge to Western values. There have been Covid protests all around the world. You want to see some real police brutality and violent suppression of protests? Try an online search on Australian police responses to Covid protests. YouTube is full of those clips. They are hard to watch, but if you must, you can type: “Covid enforcers must be held accountable: Rita Panahi”; “Riot police clash with anti-lockdown protesters in Melbourne and Sydney”; “Protesters clash with police in Australia over strict lockdown rules amid Covid-19 surge”, etc.

And remember those big truckers’ protests against Covid mandates earlier this year in Canada. Ottawa declared a state of emergency, arrested organisers, froze their bank accounts and generally treated them like suspected terrorists, even though top police officers admitted the truckers and their supporters were not violent, even if very noisy.

Did the Australian and Canadian police and security responses challenge Sunak’s “Western” values?

Since China has had some of the longest and harshest anti-Covid measures, people are understandably fed up and angry. And the government has responded with a mixture of soft and hard tactics, as most governments do.

In China, officials arrest some protesters, but they also ease off on the toughest measures. Guangzhou has lifted most Covid-19 lockdowns. Chongqing has halted regular testing of residents. Beijing now acknowledges Omicron variants are less severe and dangerous than previously stated. So much for Rogers’ tanks!

In China, officials arrest some protesters, but they also ease off on some of the toughest measures