REBOUND ‘TO PEAK IN TWO WEEKS AS CASE RATE SLOWS’
Health expert attributes surge to waning of herd immunity, while pandemic adviser says focus should be on severe infections and related deaths
The current rebound in Covid-19 infections may peak in two weeks as the rate of increase is slowing, a health expert has said a day after the city recorded more than 10,000 cases, the most in two months.
But a pandemic adviser to the government yesterday urged the public to focus on the number of severe cases and related deaths instead, arguing that the timing of the caseload peak did not matter.
The debate emerged with the city recording 10,137 new coronavirus infections on Thursday, the highest since September 10. Officials reported 9,996 new cases yesterday, including 637 imported infections, and 11 more deaths.
“We had a mass outbreak in February and March but it has been a long time since then. The herd immunity is now regressing,” respiratory expert Dr Leung Chi-chiu told a radio programme, explaining the rebound in cases.
But he said the rate of increase in infections had slowed, sliding from a peak weekly rise of 35 per cent to 9 per cent by Thursday. “If the current trend persists, it will peak in two weeks,” Leung said.
But government pandemic adviser Professor David Hui Shucheong told the Post that the caseload peak should not be the focus.
“The total number of cases is less important and only reflects the trend, and the majority of cases are mild. The numbers of severe cases, ICU admissions and deaths are more important,” Hui argued.
Health officials said earlier they were monitoring closely if Covid patients requiring hospital treatment and those with severe conditions would lead to a reduction in non-emergency services at public health facilities.
Hui said based on Singapore’s experience in its last two peaks, the daily caseload would stay above 10,000 for a short while before coming down, with each high less serious.
The Centre for Health Protection’s Dr Albert Au Ka-wing on Thursday said infections at homes for the elderly remained at a high level, with 74 facilities affected in the past week, involving 114 residents and 12 staff members.
Leung urged the elderly to get the newly available bivalent BioNTech shot as their fourth dose. He said: “Some people may worry it is new, but they do not need to fear as tens of millions of bivalent shots have been taken by adults in the United States and the side effects are similar to those of the old version.
“The safety of the shots among the elderly is very good.”
Grace Li Fai, a member of the Elderly Commission and CEO of a nursing home, said she had also noted the higher number of infections in the past 10 days.
She suggested the latest infection sources could be newly hired carers from the mainland, who were vaccinated across the border and had not been infected before.
“But we note that symptoms of the elderly who have been recently infected are mild. There are not so many serious cases or those needing hospital treatment.”
She said nursing homes were facing a double whammy of a Covid rebound and the seasonal flu, calling on operators to closely monitor the health of elderly residents at such facilities.
Dr Joseph Tsang Kay-yan, co-chairman of the Hong Kong Medical Association’s advisory committee on communicable diseases, meanwhile, said vaccination was key to protecting the healthcare system amid the surge.
He called on authorities to ramp up efforts in boosting the inoculation rate, especially among recovered Covid patients, who require one dose fewer than the public to fulfil the city’s vaccine pass requirement that limits the mobility of residents.
“In many foreign countries, Covid recoverees are still encouraged to receive the full course of vaccination. When we grant such an exemption in Hong Kong, people may develop complacency and delay their third jab,” he said.
“I find this phenomenon very unsatisfactory.”
He urged officials to step up efforts to promote the Germanmade BioNTech bivalent vaccine and mixing of booster jabs, especially among those receiving the Chinese-made Sinovac shot, which offers less protection.