Economic census set for 2023 as growth slows in wake of coronavirus crisis
China will conduct a sweeping assessment of its economy next year in a bid to provide statistics to guide macroeconomic governance and help devise mediumand long-term plans.
The fifth national economic census will kick off next year, the State Council confirmed yesterday, amid a critical time as China’s three-year battle with the coronavirus has taken a toll on all aspects of the national economy.
The economic census, last conducted in 2018, will compile detailed data on China’s secondary and tertiary industries.
The survey will cover all businesses, organisations and individuals in the industrial and service sectors from mining, manufacturing, wholesale and retail, finance and real estate to culture, sport and entertainment.
The number of employees, the size of their assets, liabilities, business structure, operating income and production capabilities will be surveyed as part of the census.
Following the previous census in 2018, China revised up its 2018 gross domestic product by 1.9 trillion yuan (HK$2.1 trillion), or by 2.1 per cent, to 91.93 trillion yuan.
Its new leadership is facing economic challenges with growth slowing faster than expected and external headwinds mounting.
Despite an annual growth target set earlier this year at “around 5.5 per cent”, the economy grew by 3.9 per cent in the third quarter, compared with a year earlier, up from the 0.4 per cent growth seen in the second quarter.
Premier Li Keqiang had conceded in May China’s economic growth was likely to “fall far short”. And taking into account the recent surge in coronavirus cases and lockdowns, Japanese investment bank Nomura has cut its forecast for China’s economic growth in the fourth quarter to 2.4 per cent, while also revising down its 2023 projection to 4 per cent.
China’s economic activities have been battered by the coronavirus since 2020, with Beijing’s commitment to its strict zeroCovid policy blamed for the widespread economic slowdown.
Policymakers have rolled out various rounds of conventional macroeconomic policies, but they have failed to take effect, with the zero-Covid policy exacerbating uncertainty and frustration among private businesses and cooling consumer sentiment.
The global downturn has also dampened the outlook for China’s exports, which fell by 0.3 per cent in October compared to a year earlier, and industrial activities.
Earlier this month, Beijing released 20 measures to boost market confidence, including easing rules on inbound travel, while urging local authorities to limit the use of lockdowns.
This renewed hopes of a broader reopening, but a recent surge in cases nationwide resulted in lockdowns and virus curbs.
Government advisers are now calling for increased stimulus and the need to set an explicit gross domestic product (GDP) growth target for next year.
Liu Shijin, a central bank adviser and former deputy director of the Development Research Centre of the State Council, said that China should set a growth target of more than 5 per cent next year and try to ensure an expansion of around 5 per cent on average in 2022-23.