Yoon at risk of becoming ‘a lame duck’
Poll defeat for conservatives could hamper president’s agenda, experts say
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol risks becoming a political lame duck sooner than expected, with his conservative party expected to suffer a heavy loss in the coming parliamentary elections.
Yoon would still be able to use his presidential executive orders and veto powers to cope with the opposition-controlled outgoing parliament. But an election defeat would weaken his say over the administration and deprive him of much influence over lawmakers from his party, political observers said.
“It’s hardly likely for the ruling party to grab a parliamentary majority and Yoon is at risk of becoming a political lame duck sooner than expected,” Chosun University political science professor Jhee Byong-kuen said.
Recent opinion polls paint a grim picture for the ruling People Power Party (PPP), prompting its top campaigner Han Dong-hoon to warn last week that a defeat in the elections would impede the Yoon government’s ability to follow through on promised reforms during the remaining three years of his five-year term.
According to a Korea Gallup poll conducted between March 19-21 nationwide, 36 per cent of respondents said more PPP candidates should be elected to help Yoon carry out his presidency while 51 per cent said more opposition lawmakers should win to keep his administration in check in the April 10 parliamentary elections.
The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at 95 per cent confidence.
Pollsters mostly agree that the main liberal opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) and the reformist Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) are expected to jointly seize the majority in the 300-seat National Assembly, extending their parliamentary control for another four years.
In what critics said was an apparent bid to help rally support among conservatives for the Yoon government, the conservative Chosun newspaper warned in a column on Tuesday that an opposition victory in the elections would turn Yoon into a “president in name only”.
As recently as earlier this month, the conservatives appeared to be staging a noticeable comeback, overtaking DPK in the opinion polls, buoyed by Yoon’s perceived fortitude in coping with the recent strike by trainee doctors.
However, this surge in popularity was short-lived as the protracted doctor dispute showed no signs of abating, exacerbating mounting voter fatigue already burdened by inflation and other economic hardships.
Moreover, the emergence of former justice minister Cho Kuk as RKP’s leader has effectively influenced the shifting mood of voters, successfully attracting those advocating for swift reforms.
“Under the Yoon government, South Korea’s diplomatic approach has regressed to resembling Cold War-era tactics. His policies have only led to strained ties with China and Russia,” Cho told journalists on Wednesday.
RKP emerged as the second most popular party after the PPP in less than two weeks since its founding on March 3.
South Korean voters will cast two votes – one for a candidate in their constituency and another for a political party at the national level. RKP is not fielding candidates at the regional level. It will compete with its two main rivals’ spin-off parties at the national level and is expected to secure up to 15 out of 46 seats.
Since his election victory against opposition leader Lee Jaemyung with a razor-thin margin in May 2022, Yoon has coldshouldered the oppositiondominated parliament even though its cooperation is essential to pass reforms in areas such as labour and education.
The political deadlock and administrative inertia have left Yoon with few domestic achievements to highlight to voters.
“His leadership style stemming from his friends or foe dichotomy nurtured through his long years of service as a prosecutor is restraining him from seeking a compromise with the opposition to resolve the political impasse”, Chosun University’s Jhee said.
Political science professor Yoon Sung-suk from Chonnam National University (CNU) said Yoon, who was elected president barely a year after he resigned as the prosecutor general, had disappointed many voters with his perceived lack of administrative skills.
“Many people are also concerned about the geopolitical situation that is less stable than years earlier amid mounting tensions in the region and increasing hostility from North Korea against the backdrop of the raging war in Ukraine,” he said.
Yoon was praised by conservative voters when he aligned Seoul more closely with the United States and Japan to cope with the nuclear-armed North, although this move has led to sour ties with Beijing and Moscow.
On the economic front, his administration was able to help restrain surging real estate prices due to higher interest rates amid money tightening.
But his apparent inaction in cracking down on alleged scandals surrounding his wife and his associates has dented his earlier image as a hard-nosed law enforcer who successfully campaigned on a slogan for a “fair and just society”, the CNU academic said.
The absence of his wife, Kim Keon-hee, who has disappeared from public view since November amid controversy over her alleged acceptance of a luxury handbag gift, is also seen as a move to improve his approval ratings.
Yoon’s detractors accuse Kim of allegedly wielding inappropriate influences over her husband and intervening in government appointments, allegations denied by the presidential office.
It’s hardly likely for the ruling party to grab a parliamentary majority JHEE BYONG-KUEN, ACADEMIC