Defence ministers’ talks ‘not expected to change dynamic’
Call between Dong Jun and Lloyd Austin will not alter their South China Sea strategy, analysts say
This week’s talks between the Chinese and US defence ministers are not expected to “change the dynamic” in the South China Sea even if they help reduce the risk of the situation getting out of control.
In talks where the issue was high on the agenda, Defence Minister Dong Jun told his American counterpart Lloyd Austin that “the South China Sea was generally stable and regional countries have the willingness, wisdom, and ability to resolve questions” by themselves.
Dong said Washington should recognise China’s “firm position” on the South China Sea, respect its territorial and maritime rights, and “take practical actions to maintain regional peace and the stability of relations between China and the United States”, according to the defence ministry.
“The Chinese and US militaries should build a relationship with no conflict or confrontation, open up for pragmatic cooperation, and gradually accumulate mutual trust, and truly serve as a stable cornerstone for the development of bilateral relations,” he added.
China claims most of the disputed waters despite multiple competing claims from Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines.
Recent months have seen repeated clashes between Chinese and Philippine coastguard ships around a disputed reef, which the latter claims as part of its exclusive economic zone. Manila has also strengthened its military relationship with the United States, its long-standing ally.
Tuesday’s video call was the first discussion of its kind between the two countries’ defence ministers since 2022.
In the discussion Austin “underscored the importance of respect for high seas freedom of navigation guaranteed under international law, especially in the South China Sea”, according to the Pentagon, and said US ships and planes would operate “wherever international law allows”.
Analysts do not expect either side to alter their strategy following the call.
“The escalations that we have recently seen in the South China Sea have been deliberately designed by the states so that they can advance their national agendas. A military communication channel will not change that dynamic,” said John Bradford, executive director of the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies and a former US Navy officer.
He was referring to a recent warning by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr that he would invoke a mutual defence treaty with the US if any service personnel were killed in a confrontation with a “foreign power”.
The Philippines has repeatedly condemned the Chinese coastguard, accusing it of harassing its vessels using water cannons and lasers, but China says it has only taken “necessary measures to protect its territorial integrity and maritime rights”.
Bradford said “were things to spiral in a direction unintended by the parties”, channels that allowed the Chinese and US militaries to talk to each other “could provide options” for de-escalating the situation.
China cut off communications with the US in August 2022 in protest at a visit to Taiwan by then House speaker Nancy Pelosi, a trip it viewed as a major breach of its sovereignty. In recent months various communication channels between senior commanders have been restored, including the call between Dong and Austin.
But Stephen Nagy, an international relations professor at International Christian University in Tokyo, warned: “The use of grey zone and hybrid tactics by Beijing are difficult to halt, even with military-to-military communication.”
Grey zone and hybrid tactics employ unconventional tactics – for example the use of water cannons or lasers – to block an opponent’s actions without engaging in open hostilities.
“We are [also] unlikely to see Chinese activities abate as Washington extends its diplomatic and security cooperation in the South China Sea, across the Taiwan Strait and in the East China Sea,” Nagy added.
But China sees the US as the main source of tension, according to Song Zhongping, a former instructor with the People’s Liberation Army.
Without mentioning the US by name, the foreign ministry yesterday warned against “countries provoking confrontation in the South China Sea”, in response to a 17-day US-Philippine drill that will start next Monday.
It also warned Manila against “introducing external forces to maintain its so-called own security” as it will lead to greater insecurity.
Song said the South China Sea would be “safe” without US provocations such as these drills or reminders that it would come to the aid of the Philippine military under the defensive treaty.
“If we want to achieve political and military mutual trust, the United States needs to make greater efforts,” Song said, although he stressed that rebuilding mechanisms to prevent conflict was “a good thing”.
Benjamin Barton, associate professor at the University of Nottingham’s Malaysia campus, said it was also not in Washington’s interests to “see a war break out over maritime claims, no matter how righteous those claims are”.
He added: “I would imagine that much of the language in the call coming from the American side was of reassurance to the PLA [People’s Liberation Army] that the US is interested in keeping the peace.”
The two defence chiefs also discussed Taiwan, another major source of tension between the two countries, and which Dong said was the “core of Chinese core interests”. Austin said the US oneChina policy had not changed and stressed the “importance of peace and stability across the strait”.
Beijing regards Taiwan as part of China that must be reunited with the mainland – by force if necessary. The US, like most countries, does not recognise the island as independent but opposes any change in the status quo and is committed to provide arms to help it defend itself.
Philippines and US forces will sink a target ship, retake islands and sail in waters facing the South China Sea in joint military drills that will start next week against the backdrop of maritime tensions with Beijing.
The exercises would “demonstrate our combat-readiness and showcase US and Philippines armed forces’ interoperability,” Colonel Michael Logico, who is one of the organisers, told foreign correspondents in Manila yesterday.
Key drills will be held in Philippine areas near Taiwan and South China Sea, where Manila and Beijing are embroiled in an increasingly tense territorial dispute. Logico said the exercises were not directed at China.
The annual war games, called
Balikatan – a Filipino word that translates to shoulder to shoulder – will start on Monday and conclude on May 10 with around 16,770 personnel expected to participate. It comes more than a week after US President Joe Biden reaffirmed the America’s “ironclad” commitment to the Philippines and Japan in the first trilateral summit of the nations’ leaders at the White House.
Australian and French troops would take part in some of the drills, while representatives from 14 countries, including from Japan, India and Europe would observe, Logico said.
“Assuming everyone arrives, this will be the biggest,” yet of the annual drills, Logico said. Philippine civilian government agencies would also participate in cyber defence and information warfare exercises.
In a first for the yearly war games, US and Philippine navies and coastguards would sail beyond 12 nautical miles off the province of Palawan, which faced the South China Sea, Logico said. The French navy would also participate in the maritime exercise, he said.
In the northern province of Ilocos Norte, close to Taiwan, the troops will again simulate the sinking of an enemy ship, a decommissioned Philippine Navy vessel.
Armed forces from both countries plan to simulate the retaking of three islands, two of them in northern Philippines. That’s to prepare for a scenario if “someone takes” one of our islands, “we retake it back,” Logico said.
“With or without China – let’s say for example in a parallel universe China did not exist – we would still be doing the exercises,” he said.