US deployment ‘raises risk of more militarisation’

Missile system on Luzon could justify PLA increasing forces, expert says

Beijing may further militarise the South China Sea, analysts say, after the “surprising” deployment of a US mid-range missile launcher in the Philippines, putting mainland China and Taiwan in striking distance.

The US Army Pacific said on Monday that the service “successfully” deployed its Mid-Range Capability (MRC) missile system, also known as the Typhon Weapon System, on the northern Philippine island of Luzon on April 11.

The MRC is a land-based, ground-launched system that improves the military’s multidomain capability. The launcher can fire the Standard Missile 6 and the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile, with operational ranges of more than 240km and 2,500km, respectively.

It is the first time that such a weapon system has been deployed in the Asia-Pacific region since the 1987 US-Soviet Union Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty prohibited the development and possession of land-based missiles ranging from 500km to 5,500km.

The MRC system was introduced to the Philippines as part of the Salaknib Exercises, an annual joint US-Philippines live-fire drill that aims to improve US-Philippines land power capacity and joint operations.

Washington began developing new intermediate-range missiles after it withdrew from the INF Treaty in 2019, citing Moscow’s alleged violations of the agreement, and amid China’s increasing military activity in the Indo-Pacific region, most notably the expansion of its missile forces, according to a Pentagon report.

The Chinese foreign ministry said yesterday that it “firmly opposed” the deployment of the MRC weapons system in the Philippines, and urged the US to “earnestly respect the security concerns of other countries”.

“The Philippines should be clearly aware of the true purpose of the US move and the serious consequences of catering to the US,” spokesman Lin Jian said.

“[The country] should not sacrifice its own security interests to draw chestnuts from the fire for the US, and should not go further down the wrong path.”

Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said it was “surprising” to see the first Asia-Pacific deployment of the MRC in the Philippines instead of in another US ally such as Japan.

Koh said the deployment of the MRC system in Luzon “equalises” a power balance between Chinese rocket forces in the region and those of the US-Philippine forces in the first island line chain, adding that the MRC could cover Chinese military targets in the South China Sea and on the mainland.

“The location itself is somewhat very strategic, and it covers both potential Taiwan Strait contingency, and, of course, the South China Sea contingency.”

Koh said the administration of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr would not push for a permanent deployment of the MRC system, as it was wary of further provoking Beijing. However, there would not be any near-term rollback in tensions in the South China Sea, and China could ramp up its presence in the disputed waterway as a response to the US missile system.

“Hawks within Beijing will justify using this mid-range capability deployment to say that, because they face a growing threat from the US, they will have to search for even more forces in the South China Sea to counter the threat,” Koh said.

“We have to consider the likelihood of China deploying more offensive capabilities on those artificial islands as well … There is the potential likelihood of this US deployment prompting China to further militarise the South China Sea.”

Timothy Heath, a senior international defence researcher at the Rand Corporation, said the MRC system was capable of targeting aircraft and ships, increasing the threat to Chinese aircraft and ships operating in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.

If a conflict broke out between China and the Philippines, the deployment of the mid-rangecapable missile would give the US military a “powerful weapon to assist” Philippine forces and serve as a deterrent for any regional war, he said. “It could be used to retaliate against PLA [People’s Liberation Army] rocket forces that launch missiles against the Philippines,” Heath said.

“Deployment of the midrange missile raises the possibility that US forces based in the Philippines could respond to Chinese missile strikes on the Philippines by launching retaliatory missile strikes against China’s mainland.”

Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington, who specialises in Southeast Asia, said that while the deployment of the MRC system would not be a “game changer” in the region, it was a factor the PLA planners now had to consider.

“It is mobile, making it very hard to hit, and it is one more thing that Chinese forces would both have to defend against and use their own missiles in a counterstrike,” Abuza said.

The deployment of the MRC in the Philippines was followed by the first video call between US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and China’s defence minister, Admiral Dong Jun, on Tuesday.

During the meeting, Austin again said that the United States would “continue to fly, sail and operate safely and responsibly, wherever international law allows” in the South China Sea.