Myanmar’s neighbours sit on the sidelines as it slides into chaos

As the poorest member of Asean grapples with a 50% poverty rate, helping a regional nation in trouble is not foreign interference

Myanmar sticks out like a sore thumb among Asean member states for being the most unstable and least prosperous among them. Before, it had much to do with ethnic conflicts that resembled a civil war. Now, though, not only has the fighting on several fronts intensified, but also its economy is collapsing and half of its population are living in poverty. The situation has turned from bad to dire since the military coup against an elected government in 2021, according to the latest report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

Asean’s singular failure or refusal to get involved over many years has been a huge black mark on its record, and the bloc is consistently being pointed to by critics as being no more than a talking shop. The principle of non-interference does not mean good neighbours can’t help another in trouble. And Myanmar is in a lot of trouble. According to the UNDP:

• Poverty headcount as a percentage of the population has doubled from 24.8 per cent in 2017 to 49.7 per cent in 2023. An additional 25 per cent are hanging by a thread.

• Only the top 20 per cent of the population reported a higher income per capita. But this income remains well below what would be required for a middle-class standard of living. Essentially, the middle class has disappeared in the country.

• Half of all households lack a secondary income source. Women-headed households are 1.2 times more likely to live in poverty compared to households headed by men.

• Foreign direct investment (FDI) dropped below US$2 billion in 2021, compared to US$5 billion-plus in 2017. Despite a slight recovery in 2022-23, average annual FDI remains significantly lower than in previous years.

According to the UNDP, a protracted recession is continuing from the severe contraction of -17.9 per cent in GDP in 2021. An estimated US$4 billion per year will be required to halt the population’s rapid descent into poverty.

Donor countries clearly can help a lot with cash transfers and other means.

“Without immediate interventions to provide cash transfers, food security and access to basic services, vulnerability will keep growing, and impacts will be felt across generations,” UNDP administrator Achim Steiner said.

“We call on all stakeholders – inside and outside Myanmar – to take action and preserve vulnerable households from slipping into irreversible poverty and despair.”

A Myanmar that degenerates into chaos will be bad for everyone except drug lords. Its biggest exports to its neighbours, besides drugs, have been refugees.

Helping to stabilise Myanmar will give Asean the credibility it so sorely needs to tackle even bigger problems – from the emerging cold war in Asia between China and the United States.

After all, the security and prosperity of all Asean states are directly affected by rising tensions in the South China Sea.

Meanwhile, its Muslim-majority countries, especially Malaysia, have been vocal about Israel’s scorched-earth war in Palestine. And yet, Asean in general and those Muslim-majority states in particular have been singularly ineffective and silent about Rohingya Muslims, who have been called the most persecuted minority in the world. Some 750,000 flooded into Bangladesh in 2020 due to a military crackdown.

One assumes the lives of Rohingya Muslims are as valuable as those of Palestinians, and their plight is much closer to home. Asean’s passivity, especially of those Muslim countries, exposes them to charges of hypocrisy.

Meanwhile, if Asean wants to play a constructive role in moderating the bitter rivalry between the US and China, and help keep peace in the region, it needs to put its own house in order. Myanmar would be a good place to start.

Beijing has been brokering peace deals between various rebel groups and the military junta. Yet, Asean is content to stay on the sidelines. Its member states can do a lot more, not only in helping to work towards a political settlement, but also the economic rehabilitation of Myanmar.

Helping to stabilise Myanmar will give Asean the credibility it so sorely needs to tackle even bigger problems