Hearts of young Taiwanese must be won, article says

Political risks across the Taiwan Strait were likely to spike next year but younger Taiwanese could still be won over on social media, observers in mainland China said in a recent article.

According to the article in Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies, a mainland journal focused on Taiwan affairs, a period of “instability and uncertainty” has set in since self-ruled Taiwan chose independence-leaning candidate William Lai Ching-te to be its next president.

Lai, the sitting vice-president from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, was elected on January 13 with nearly 40 per cent of the vote, in an election framed by Beijing as a choice between war and peace.

Lai might adopt “low profile” and “moderate” cross-strait policies after taking office next month, and was unlikely to declare “de jure Taiwan independence” any time soon, the article said.

But, in the long term, Lai might bring “high” risks such as decoupling with the mainland economy, and even “very high” risks of “causing major accidental incidents” in the strait, it added.

Co-authored by Wang Zhenwei, director of the politics department under Xiamen University’s Graduate Institute for Taiwan Studies, the article also warned of “extremely high” risks of a reelected Lai “colluding” with the United States and Japan.

The institute is a major mainland think tank on Taiwan affairs. Tan Xin, a graduate of the institute, was the other author.

The write-up was posted on the cross-strait journal’s social media account earlier yesterday but is no longer available on the site.

The article suggested that Beijing was still watching Lai’s behaviour for further evaluation, though the situation might become further complicated after the US presidential election in November.

The article also said that Beijing would “carry out crisis management” over Lai ahead of his May 20 inauguration, but did not elaborate.

From May 20 to November 5, US election day, the situation in the Taiwan Strait would be “peaceful winds and waves”, the article said. “There may be a period of waiting, pause, and watching between China and the United States and between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.”

But the strait might be hit by a political “tsunami” in 2025, the article warned, because Lai might become more “radical” ahead of local elections in Taiwan the following year, and through possible collaboration with Donald Trump, if the Republican were to return to the White House.

Beijing sees Taiwan as part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary.

Meanwhile, Beijing saw that the majority public opinion in Taiwan leaned towards seeking peace, cross-strait exchanges, cooperation and development, the article said, adding that the generation aged 10-24 years was the main group whose hearts must be won.

Social media platforms such as TikTok and its mainland version Douyin, as well as Xiaohongshu or “little red book”, China’s version of Instagram, were very popular among younger Taiwanese, it said.

“As long as the mainland works properly, it can win the support of Taiwan’s Generation Z and create a rational and pragmatic young generation.”

[If] the mainland works properly, it can win the support of Taiwan’s Generation Z ARTICLE IN MAINLAND JOURNAL