China and France both get message after positive talks

President Xi Jinping is on his first visit to Europe since Covid broke out. It began in France against a background of hot issues – trade imbalances, access to China’s markets, and alleged Chinese industrial overcapacity that feeds into foreign markets. In the absence of concessions, these things could have clouded Xi’s talks with President Emmanuel Macron. Instead, by all accounts, the talks were a big success. This is not just according to the number of treaties signed.

Macron deployed hospitality and cultural charm to smooth engagement with China. It was a carefully managed exercise in soft power that included participation of the European Commission president in a tripartite summit. Macron’s invitation to Ursula von der Leyen was intended to show engagement with China is not just France’s position, but represents a European consensus. Given that France and Germany drive the European Union, there is a subtle but clear message here about European unity.

The invitation to Xi to Macron’s high-altitude childhood haunt in the Pyrenees was an attempt to cultivate a personal relationship. All this is not to say the hosts did not push the Chinese on long-standing trade and business issues. But the focus tended to be more on what each side can get from the other through dialogue. On the bilateral front, France has told China that when it comes to technological restrictions, it is not going to follow Washington’s stance. To be sure, the French side raised bilateral differences with China, but the overall tone was constructive.

The general Chinese reaction to Xi’s French trip is positive, reflecting a compelling need to engage more with Europe. Beijing’s message to France and Europe is that the world does not want another cold war. Macron’s message is that Europe will engage with China on its own terms, amid the uncertainty of a US election year. After the Xi-Macron talks, Beijing and Paris issued a statement on the Gaza war which aligned France more closely with Beijing’s approach than Washington’s. This is also a way for Paris to show France has strategic autonomy when it comes to important global issues.

That said, the biggest obstacle facing bilateral relations, and China’s ties with Europe, is Russia. To a once war-torn Europe, Russia’s war with Ukraine is an existential threat. It is understandable that Europeans still hope China may use its influence with Moscow to rein in Russia, which they regard as the aggressor. This comes as Putin is expected to visit China this week or next for talks with Xi.

That will be a test of China’s stance and, perhaps, Russia’s response, not to mention France’s relations with Russia. Paris is not closing the door on diplomacy, having been one of the few European capitals to send an envoy this week to Putin’s latest inauguration.