BEIJING ‘MAY NOT SHOW ANY MERCY’
War of words escalates over purported transcript of agreement with neither side likely to back down
Maritime confrontations with the Philippines might provoke “strong countermeasures” from China, observers have warned, as the rival South China Sea claimants continue their war of words over a purported deal that Manila denies being a part of.
Neither side looked likely to back down after China publicised the transcript of what it said was a phone conversation with a senior Philippine military official over “a new model for management” of the Second Thomas Shoal.
The Manila-controlled submerged reef – less than 370km from the Philippine island of Palawan – is part of the Spratly Islands chain also claimed by Beijing as the Nansha Islands.
The Philippines denies the existence of any such agreement with China and has warned its public against “falling for a false narrative”.
In the latest escalation in tensions, the Chinese foreign ministry yesterday urged the Philippines to “stop infringing on China’s right and provoking China”.
This came a few hours after Philippine national security adviser Eduardo Ano echoed a call on Wednesday from Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro for the Philippine foreign ministry to “take appropriate actions against individuals in the Chinese embassy … for violating Philippine law, particularly the Anti-Wire Tapping Act, as well as for serious breaches of diplomatic protocols and conventions”.
In a statement yesterday, Ano accused the Chinese embassy in Manila of “repeated acts of engaging and dissemination of disinformation, misinformation and malinformation”, and called for the Chinese diplomats responsible to be expelled.
On Tuesday, the Chinese embassy in Manila reportedly released to selected media outlets a transcript of the purported phone call between a Chinese diplomat and a Philippine navy officer, prompting the accusations of wiretapping from outraged Philippine officials.
The accusation, however, did not square with an earlier claim by Romeo Brawner, chief of staff of the Philippine military, that the purported recording was “a malign influence effort” from China’s ruling Communist Party and likely to be a “deep fake”.
“Transcripts can easily be fabricated, and audio recordings can be manufactured by using deep fakes. These reports only aim to serve as a distraction from the China Coast Guard’s ongoing aggressive behaviour,” Brawner said.
In Beijing yesterday, foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said Ano’s statement “precisely proved” that the Philippine side had “become weak in the face of facts and evidence”.
“China solemnly demands that the Philippine side ensure the normal performance of duties by Chinese diplomatic personnel, stop infringing on China’s right and provoking China, and refrain from denying the facts or acting rashly,” he added.
Hu Bo, director of Beijingbased think tank South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, said bilateral diplomatic ties had sunk to “the worst level” in recent decades.
“It’s very rare that the two governments are now sticking to their own version with no compromise,” Hu said.
“China has been on the defensive but if the Philippines continues to push, I don’t think China will show any mercy.”
Ding Duo, an associate research fellow at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, said that Beijing would take “strong countermeasures” against the Philippines.
“China will certainly respond with strong countermeasures regardless whether it is from the perspective of defending the rights of the sea, or from the perspective of domestic public opinion, or even from the perspective of preventing other countries from following the footsteps of the Philippines.”
Transcripts can easily be fabricated, and audio recordings can be manufactured by using deep fakes
ROMEO BRAWNER, CHIEF OF STAFF, PHILIPPINE MILITARY
A recent aerial confrontation between an Australian military helicopter and a Chinese fighter jet in the Yellow Sea has sparked fresh tensions, but stabilising bilateral ties between both sides are expected to soothe any potential escalation, analysts say.
The incident highlighted the higher frequency of such encounters as geopolitical uncertainty grew, analysts said, suggesting this could shed light on China’s military approach to preventing mid-air collisions, especially after a fatal 2001 accident in Hainan.
Australia’s defence department and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese this week rebuked Beijing over a manoeuvre by a People’s Liberation Army fighter aircraft last Saturday, which had jeopardised an Australian navy helicopter launched from the Australian navy’s HMAS Hobart.
The HMAS Hobart was in the Yellow Sea enforcing UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea, when the Chinese aircraft released flares across the helicopter’s flight path, Australia’s defence department said.
The incident sparked domestic uproar, with Australian opposition leader Peter Dutton urging Albanese to raise his concerns directly with President Xi Jinping, while Shadow Defence Minister Andrew Hastie slammed the Albanese government for being weak on China.
Beijing defended its actions, saying the Australian helicopter had ventured too close into Chinese airspace and was spying on and “disrupting” its naval training in the Yellow Sea, an area between China and the Korean peninsula.
Chinese defence ministry spokesman Zhang Xiaogang said Australia had confused “right from wrong” and the Chinese military was right to warn the Australian helicopter. Australia’s defence chief Angus Campbell rejected Beijing’s accusations on
Agencies in China do … take steps that are not authorised by the central government
BRYCE WAKEFIELD, AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Thursday, saying the helicopter had behaved professionally.
An accurate explanation for such incidents was hard to establish given the lack of information and intelligence, just as it was difficult to know if the Chinese pilot had acted on his own accord or if he had communicated with his superiors or the Australian navy, said Allan Behm, director of international and security affairs at The Australian Institute.
“Everybody assumes it was personally commanded by Xi, but I think that that is so highly unlikely as to be risible.
“There is [however] not enough evidence to suggest malfeasance.”
An explanation for China’s behaviour could be drawn from a 2001 Hainan incident when a Chinese jet crashed after it hit a US military plane near Hainan island, killing its pilot, Behm said.
The American aircraft made an emergency landing on the island, triggering a diplomatic stand-off.
Chinese analysts said the incident had propelled China’s modernisation of its air force and navy and prompted the army to develop a strategy that focused more on offshore defence.
Sometimes, lower level commanders in China could be “overzealous” because they believed an aggressive response was what Beijing desired, said Bryce Wakefield, national executive director at think tank Australian Institute of International Affairs.
“Agencies in China do, from time to time, take steps that are not authorised by the central government. Still, the blame for this provocative behaviour has to be squarely on China,” Wakefield said. “Because China needs to be in control of its forces, even if sometimes commanders in the field make decisions that are not necessarily coordinated centrally.”
While there was no dispute that both sides were entitled to be in the Yellow Sea, it was natural for Beijing to be more sensitive to overflights and navigations by other countries, said Dylan Loh, assistant professor of foreign policy at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.
“I do not think this will derail the overall trajectory of the gradual normalisation of relations between China and Australia, but it does show the risks of unanticipated events hindering that process,” he said.
Ties between the two nations were on the mend from a diplomatic low in recent times, but local Australian media outlets have continued to portray China as a war threat.
“It is very much a thorny issue, but it is not likely to spark a wider conflict,” Wakefield said, referring to the Yellow Sea incident.
The incident followed an “unsafe and unprofessional” skirmish in November when Australian naval divers were injured by a Chinese warship’s sonar pulses off Japan’s coast.
Last week, Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles met his counterparts from the US, Japan and the Philippines to work on the “rules-based order” in the Indo-Pacific.
Wakefield and Behm said the Yellow Sea incident would blow over, as had the sonar incident, with Behm saying Albanese had acted diplomatically and consistently with an approach towards stabilising bilateral ties.