President’s Serbia visit likely to increase weapons sales

President Xi Jinping’s visit to Serbia was likely to increase hi-tech weapons ties between the two countries, and intensify a “competition for influence” in the Balkans between the United States and China for advanced arms sales, analysts said.

During Xi’s meeting with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, the two sides agreed to jointly develop “new quality productive forces” and build hi-tech industrial cooperation projects, while also pledging to “deepen cooperation in space science and technology”, according to Xinhua.

Xi also wrote an opinion piece published in Serbia’s Politika newspaper on Tuesday and said: “We should expand cooperation in technological innovation, advanced manufacturing, green energy, digital economy, artificial intelligence and other emerging areas.”

Xi framed the visit as “opening a new chapter” in bilateral relations during his meeting with

Vucic, as the two countries signed a pledge to deepen and elevate their comprehensive strategic partnership and announced that they would “build a community with a shared future”.

Although it did not specify military cooperation, the joint statement issued afterward said both sides promised to cooperate in fighting terrorism.

The deal to boost hi-tech industry and anti-terrorism cooperation comes as Serbia has been increasing military ties with China, notably in procuring advanced weapons systems, such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and missile defence systems.

In 2020, Beijing delivered six Chinese-made CH-92A combat drones along with 18 FT-8C laserguided missiles to Belgrade.

Three years later, Serbia acquired Chinese CH-95 UAVs, and in February, Vucic announced Belgrade would buy even more of the drones.

Belgrade bought China’s FK-3 surface-to-air defence system – an export variant of the HQ-22 missile system – in 2019, taking delivery in 2022.

The Chinese missile defence system is comparable to Russia’s S-300 and the US Patriot system.

“Chinese surface-to-air missiles provide Serbia deterrence against potential Nato interventions in the future should those tensions escalate into conflict,” Timothy Heath, a senior international defence researcher at the Rand Corporation think tank, said.

“The drones are useful for combat operations against potential adversaries such as Kosovo and other Balkan nations.”

Vucic previously described the FK-3 and other weapons as a “powerful deterrent” against potential attackers, a reference to Nato’s 78-day bombardment of Serbia during its conflict with the mainly ethnic Albanian territory of Kosovo in 1999. Kosovo declared independence in 2008, which Serbia and its close partners, including China, have rejected.

Vuk Vuksanovic, a senior researcher at the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, said Serbia’s weapons purchase from China was a “multifaceted process” to replace outdated weapons systems dating back to the days of the former Yugoslavia.

He said a re-emergence of war in the Balkans was unlikely, but weapons procurement could be used as a tool to be “politically provocative towards the neighbours”.

“We will see more weapons proliferation … in the domain of armed drones because Serbia is the largest drone operator in the Balkans, and other countries will want to match that capability.

“In this process, China will be an occasional arms supplier with Serbia, but Serbia will still be mindful of the American factor in these dealings with China.”

Martin Sebena, a lecturer at the University of Hong Kong who specialises in China-Europe relations, said Serbia would purchase a sizeable number of weapons from other countries, with China emerging as a “natural partner” in its efforts to diversify from its Russia-centric weapons supply chain.

“What helped also has been the good relationship between the two countries, irrespective of who currently governs in Belgrade,” Sebena said.