No matter who wins EP elections, Lagarde is the favourite

IMF chief Christine Lagarde is being increasingly name checked, in the context of preparations for the May 27 EU summit, two days after the results of the European Parliament elections are known, diplomats told EurActiv.

EU leaders will meet for a special summit on May 27, in order to discuss the aftermath of two elections. It was previously announced that the heads of state and government will gather in Brussels for a dinner to review the results of the European elections. But the news is that EU leaders will also take stock of the Presidential election held on May 25 in Ukraine, the role of Russia, and the eventuality of moving to the “third level” of sanctions, which will hit the Russian economy, and backfire on the Union.

Regarding the result of the EP elections, the discussion is likely to be “messy” if the outcome doesn’t show a clear winner, an EU diplomat said. Opinion polls held across the EU have shown that the results, between the centre-right European Peoples’ Party (EPP) and the centre-left Party of European Socialists (PES), may be too close to call.

The political thinking is that EU leaders should not “abide” by the results, but take the results “into account”. The biggest challenge would be if PES candidate Martin Schulz wins the elections, diplomats say, implying that if the EPP candidate JeanClaude Juncker gains the upper hand, Europe’s political leadership would be happier.

In the case of a clear winner, a likely result would be for EU leaders to state that they would propose this candidate to Parliament, where he should be able to get a clear majority. In that case, current Council President Herman Van Rompuy would get a mandate to discuss the process with member states, and with the MEPs. The former Belgian Prime Minister is an advocate of appointing an “outsider” as Commission President, rather than one of the EU elections leading candidates, or “Spitzenkandidatten”.

As the European Parliament is expected to elect its new president in July, EU leaders would prefer that the Commission President is elected before, in order to avoid deciding on a package of appointments at that stage. Member states are more in favour of discussing a package of positions, including determining the President of the European Council, EU foreign affairs chief and President of the Eurogroup, in September.

If Juncker wins the elections, he has reasonably good chances of getting the Commission President job. If Schulz wins, his chances are smaller, because it is less likely that he will get a qualified majority of the heads of state and government. Regarding liberal ALDE candidate Guy Verhofstadt, diplomats discarded his chances of winning such a majority.

But the most likely development would be that neither of the Spitzenkandidatten emerge in strong position, and that EU leaders will promote a candidate from outside. The name which has been frequently mentioned recently is that of Lagarde, EurActiv was told.

The current IMF chief is EPP-affiliated, but apparently this is not seen as an obstacle, despite the fact that France is governed by the Socialists.

Analysts have also predicted that none of the three Spitzenkandidatten is likely to become Commission President.

Schulz, who continues to lead the parliament while he is campaigning, has made it clear that the next parliament would not vote in support of a candidate appointed behind closed doors. German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel, a Social Democrat, has recently warned against proposing an outside candidate, saying that such move by EU leaders would “destroy EU democracy”.

However, diplomats appear to suggest that the EU electorate would understand such a move, if it’s properly explained.