Top DJIA stocks expected to keep rising
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the S&P 500 have hit new all-time highs. What is amazing is that the market just doesn’t feel as exuberant as the headlines might have indicated in this extended bull market continuing in 2014. Despite the gains, the Dow is up less than 3% in 2014. Maybe the financial media is right that the raging bull market has morphed into a stock picker’s market.
It turns out that as of Friday’s closing bell, seven of the 30 Dow stocks were trading up by more than 10% year-to-date in 2014 in a FINVIZ.com performance screen.
Including where the shares are now, what their valuation is versus the consensus analyst price targets and what sort of dividend yields they offer for investors, six of these seven double-digit DJIA gainers still have upside to their respective consensus price targets and are expected to keep rising over the next year.
Nine of the DJIA stocks were negative so far for the year. That being said, four of the losers were down by less than 2%, and only one of the year-to-date DJIA losers was down by more than 5%, and that was Goldman Sachs.
Caterpillar Inc. has been the top Dow stock of 2014. This is shocking when you consider that the sentiment on Caterpillar was very negative as this year kicked off. The stock is up 20.62% this year. Caterpillar yields about 2.2% for its common stock dividend. With shares hitting a 52-week (not all-time) high of $108.93, its consensus price target is almost $112.
Merck & Co. is another surprise winner as the number-two Dow stock. The big pharma giant is up 16.49% so far in 2014. Merck’s dividend is still close to 3%, even after the rally. Trading at $57.85, it has a consensus price target up at $59.22.
Johnson & Johnson may not be the most exciting company, considering its pharmaceutical, medical and consumer products operations. Still, its stock was up by 14.25% so far in 2014. Shares were just under an all-time high, and its dividend is now 2.7%. At $103.10, it has a consensus price target of $104.84. A comparison for Johnson & Johnson is not available for the start of 2014.
Cisco Systems Inc. has gotten little love up until recently for its earnings problems. Still, John Chambers and his team now have their shareholders up by 12.51% so far in 2014. Shares have come up to $24.90, and the yield here is still a high 3.1%. The consensus analyst price target is $25.43.
Microsoft Corp. is now under new leadership with Satya Nadella and with a focus on mobile and cloud. Steve Ballmer is gone, and shares were up 12.50% - barely behind Cisco. Microsoft shares are around $41.40, but its consensus target price is only $41.87.
Walt Disney Co. just keeps on chugging higher. The Mouse House shares have risen yet another 10.75%, so far in 2014. At $85.60, Disney shares hit a new all-time high, and the consensus analyst price target is now up at $88.54.
Intel Corp. continues to surprise, even as the PC market it dominates remained irrelevant. The processor giant’s stock is up 10.47% so far in 2014. Intel’s share price of $28.20 is the only one above the consensus analyst price target, which is $26.92.
What is so amazing here is that projections at the start of 2014 called for a loss of 5% rather than a gain of more than 10%.
The moral of the story is that the bull market has continued in 2014. A reality check is that the bull market just might not be quite as strong as what the headlines from the financial press may have indicated. Investors still keep hearing that the bull market has now turned into a stock picker’s market. The double-digit winners in 2014 have all significantly outperformed what analysts were calling for at the start of 2014.