OPEC fore­casts crude oil de­mand growth for 2015-2016

Financial Mirror (Cyprus) - - FRONT PAGE -

The Or­gan­i­sa­tion of Petroleum Ex­port­ing Coun­tries (OPEC) re­leased its July Oil Mar­ket Re­port on Mon­day, and the car­tel raised its forecast of 2015 global de­mand growth by 100,000 bar­rels per day to 1.28 mln. To­tal con­sump­tion in 2015 is now pegged at 92.61 mln bpd, up from the prior forecast of 92.5 mln.

OPEC also has raised its forecast for 2016 global de­mand growth to 1.34 mln bpd, with to­tal de­mand ex­pected to reach 93.94 mln.

The car­tel re­ported as well that the av­er­age price of a bar­rel of oil from its ref­er­ence bas­ket fell by $1.95 a bar­rel in June, from $62.16 in May to $60.21. OPEC noted that money man­agers con­tin­ued to cut net long po­si­tions in the fu­tures mar­ket.

To­tal OPEC crude oil pro­duc­tion in June av­er­aged 31.38 mln bpd, up 283,000 from May’s to­tal. That is the high­est monthly to­tal so far in 2015 and well above the an­nual av­er­ages for 2013 and 2014. The to­tal is based on non-OPEC es­ti­mates.

To­tal non-OPEC sup­ply is forecast to av­er­age 57.69 mln bpd in 2016, up 530,000 bar­rels a day com­pared with the car­tel’s May forecast, while not­ing that the forecast is “as­so­ci­ated with a high level of risk.” U.S. prod­uct is forecast to grow from an es­ti­mated to­tal of 13.85 mln bpd (in­clud­ing NGLs and other liq­uids) this year to an av­er­age of 14.18 mln bpd in 2016.

To­tal world oil sup­plies are now forecast at about 92.77 mln bpd in 2015, about 150,000 bar­rels a day more than to­tal de­mand. From a pro­ducer’s point of view, that is a welcome im­prove­ment over the re­cent over­sup­ply to­tals of more than 1 mln bpd.

The news on Mon­day re­gard­ing a po­ten­tial deal be­tween Greece and its lenders has not over­come the pos­si­bil­ity in traders’ minds that a nu­clear deal will be struck with Iran, lead­ing to the pos­si­bil­ity that Ira­nian pro­duc­tion could rise by nearly 2 mln bpd. (Source: 24/7 Wall St.com)

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