Dark clouds hang over start of talks
E DII TO RII A L
As the two communities’ negotiators try to sum up their talking points and convergences ahead of next week’s crucial talks in Geneva, the two leaders, President Nicos Anastasiades and Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci are faced with the harsh reality that the recent events in Turkey could torpedo any breakthrough.
Ankara has opened up too many fronts and is engaged in several conflicts with the Kurds in its south east, in northern Iraq and within Syria, and with the Islamic State, and despite its efforts to warm to Russia and avoid another standoff, it has not been too convincing.
It is clear, as strategists, historians and analysts have reiterated, that the age of large-scale conflict is over and now is the age of cooperation, evident from President-elect Donald Trump’s overtures to Moscow and his plans to focus more on internal issues rather than have boots on the ground in places that is causing greater animosity towards the Americans.
If President Erdogan were to weigh his options, his best bet would be to stand down from his overbearing demands on the Cyprus issue, seek a smooth resolution, cooperate with the Greek Cypriots for a shortest possible transition and exit the process almost a winner.
Economists have made it clear that solving the Cyprus problem, whereby Turkey would withdraw its military presence and devolve itself from any direct control over the Turkish Cypriots, would benefit the island, primarily, but also Ankara itself, as it would no longer have the cost of maintaining an expensive army, whose institution has been generally undermined by Erdogan following last summer’s coup attempt.
The benefits would also be multiple as a unified state in Cyprus, in a federal form, would allow the island to revive its dynamic shipping sector and transform the eastern Mediterranean into a maritime hub, in addition to the energy hub in the making.
Instead of trying to grab as much as it can, by using the decades-old strategy of stirring trouble and setting unrealistic demands, in order for the other side to “compromise” to some of Turkey’s wishes, Ankara would be better off with a peaceful neighbour to its south.
But in order to do so, Erdogan’s government has to show the world that it has total control of its own territory, respect human rights and stop blackmailing Europe with the refugee ‘carrot and stick’, which has lost Turkey popular support even among its one-time allies.
As Israel, too, takes a back-seat strategy and tries to avoid getting directly involved in the Syria conflict, perhaps it is time that Ankara considers the value of peace versus the high cost of a conflict that could become an open would that will be difficult to heal.