“Foreign governments are ... asking themselves whether Trump will be strong enough in Congress to carry out all his initiatives, or whether he will be paralysed by a hostile Congress and poor political ratings. China, Mexico and Russia – as well as every

Trump will need to substantially increase his positive ratings to demonstrate to Congress that he is trending upward. After an election, presidents normally have a honeymoon period of a few months, where they are given the benefit of the doubt. Roosevelt and Reagan didn’t need a honeymoon period – their numbers spoke for themselves.

If Trump doesn’t get the honeymoon, with some Clinton supporters coming over to his side at least temporarily, this will cause congressmen to carefully evaluate the mood in their districts. They will have to make the difficult decision of whether to oppose Trump, and if they do oppose him, on what issues. Foreign governments will also be evaluating their options. It is not simply being president that makes you powerful, it is the support you have in Congress, and that depends on the support you have in the country. If he had blown away Clinton, he wouldn’t face this problem. Since he didn’t, he does.

And that made Trump’s first 100 days far more important to him than to previous presidents. He needs to demonstrate to his party that he can craft and pass legislation that will increase his popularity. He has to do this while making it clear to his supporters that he is not going to do what previous leaders did and ignore the promises he made during the campaign. This is hard to do. Congressmen and senators who might lose in the next election if they support the measures that are closest to the heart of Trump’s base will resist. And with only a 52-48 majority in the Senate, it will be tough. It is always important to remember that in the American system, presidents have minimal power over senators and congressmen. Their greatest influence comes from popularity they can transfer to candidates from their party – at a price.

Trump has another deeper problem. Roosevelt and Reagan faced systemic problems that both hurt deeply and were not debatable. The core issue in the U.S. now is the decline of the middle and lower-middle classes’ purchasing power. The lower-middle class is priced out of homeownership.

However, a family with a median income can still afford a modest home. In my opinion, the crisis will not develop fully until those with a median household income are priced out. Many other measures exist, but I am using this one because home-ownership is built deeply into our culture. I believe that over the next decade this terminal decline will take place, and at that point a president will be elected with numbers similar to those of Roosevelt and Reagan, powerful enough to take action, with a Congress fearful of angering him.

In my view, Trump identified the right problem too early. As a result, he ran a campaign focused on broader issues. But what he didn’t have is the ability to focus laser-like on the fact that the system has crippled half of society. He won those who had been crippled and those who feared being crippled, and it was enough to eke out a victory. Like Barry Goldwater, who made Reagan’s case 16 years too early, Trump has identified the key issue and mobilised a coalition that barely put him in power – the difference being Goldwater got trounced.

Trump’s coalition must be satisfied that he is a transformative president. But to do that, he is going to have to deal with Congress and in particular the fears of Republicans about his future, and therefore theirs. The problem that Trump has is that without early victories, later ones will be much harder to come by. Weakness begets weakness.

And this most assuredly will affect the international system. Countries around the world will behave very differently depending on if Trump strengthens or weakens. Some want a stronger American president. Israel is an example. Others, most assuredly including Russia, would like a president unable to act, giving them breathing room. The entire world – even beyond Washington, which is its own planet – will be looking at Trump’s first days and the polls that are sure to come. And for Trump, holding his own is not enough given that the election was so close.