Why a Brexit deal may not be so hard

Similarly, the agreement includes a civil aviation pact that will allow it to become part of the single EU system for aviation and similar provisions in areas such as environmental control.

Ukraine, of course, faces a long wait for full implementation as it does not yet meet the EU acquis. Single market access will be staggered as each sector reaches the required standards. Moreover, this deal was struck down in a Dutch referendum last year, which forced the EU to strengthen provisions over the rule of law, fighting corruption and ensuring that there was no automatic glidepath to full EU membership.

There are reasons to think that the UK could secure a not dissimilar deal, with the most obvious being money. The UK is the second largest net contributor to the EU budget at 9 bln euros annually. Based on Norway’s contribution, it is possible that it could end up paying 3.5 bln euros a year, which would still leave it as one of the largest net contributors.

Next, the UK must ensure that its standards and laws do not diverge from those in the EU. On the day the UK formally bids adieu, EU legislation will be signed into UK law and ECJ rulings will become precedents for the UK Supreme Court. The challenge will be to find mechanisms to manage the divergence in standards that over time will inevitably occur as the UK deviates from the acquis. On this front, the Ukrainian deal is instructive as the bilateral agreement is to be overseen by an annual EU-Ukraine summit backed by working party groups. Disputes will be ruled over by a balanced panel of judges from the EU, Ukraine and a neutral party.

Expect plenty more sparks to fly during EU-UK negotiations. But given that a template roughly matching the UK situation has been formed, the objective basis for a deal is in place. The question is the political basis for such a deal. With election season in the big European economies coming toward its conclusion, expect a more realpolitik approach to dominate.