“More critical to the Turks are the Russians, with whom Turkey has a long history of conflict. The Turks need the Americans to counter Russia, and the United States’ use of the Kurds against IS reduces the demands on Turkey”
the Kurds dream of an independent Kurdish state, drawn from territory that belongs to Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria. Neither Turkey nor Iran is prepared to consider an independent state because, from their perspective, it could only come from the dismemberment of their countries.
The American strategy of creating second-tier allies includes recruiting and working with Syrian Kurds against IS. This cuts directly against Turkish interests. The United States sent a message last week with its announcement that it was arming the Syrian Kurds. This should make for an interesting confrontation between Trump and Erdogan, but it is telling that Erdogan visited Washington anyway.
Still, while the Kurds matter a great deal, the Syrian Kurds are not as critical for Turkey. More critical to the Turks are the Russians, with whom Turkey has a long history of conflict.
At this point, the Turks need the Americans to counter Russia, and the United States’ use of the Kurds against IS reduces the demands on Turkey. The Turkish regime is stabilising itself after the attempted coup and doesn’t need its army, which is being restructured, to engage in conflict causing high casualties. The Turks will want to exact concessions from the Americans about what happens if and when the Islamic State is defeated.
Israel’s problem is that its grand strategy is to be indispensable to a great power. Israel was of significance to the United States during the Cold War. In the war that began on September 11, however, Israel has not been of great value. Certainly, its intelligence is useful, but not enough to drive the relationship. Israel’s military could fight side by side with the Americans, but this would pose more political problems for the United States than it is worth. Besides, the Israeli military is designed to maintain control of its territory and to project power near its current borders. Except for special operations, its force is not designed logistically to operate at long distances. In addition, Israel could not afford to lend enough force to joint operations to significantly change the correlation of forces in areas of significant fighting.
During the Cold War, Israel brought geography to bear, as well as the forces to tie down and defeat Soviet allies Egypt and Syria. In the current conflict, Israel’s participation is limited by politics and military capability. Israel’s goal is to remain relevant to the United States while retaining its existing borders.
The United States would like a settlement with the Palestinians, but it doesn’t want it enough that breaking with Israel makes sense. This is, for Israel, a dangerous position. Israel is not dependent on the United States right now in any significant way (the amount of U.S. aid is a small fraction of Israel’s gross domestic product), but neither is the United States currently dependent on Israel.
The problem Israel has is that, should the strategic reality shift, Israel will probably need the United States more than the United States needs Israel. Therefore, the U.S. is unlikely to give Israel the things Trump spoke of in the campaign, while Israel will search for ways it can be useful to the United States short of major concessions. Atmospherics aside, the relationship will remain the same as under Barack Obama and other administrations since 1991.
In Saudi Arabia, Trump will have an entirely different discussion. For the Saudis, the Islamic State is an issue, but the price of oil is everything. The oil production cuts the Russians and Saudis agreed to have achieved almost nothing, and the pressure on the Saudi government remains the same.
The Saudi kingdom consists of various tribes and factions, held together by the careful, politically difficult distribution of wealth. Low oil prices make it hard for the Saudis to maintain internal stability and also to try to develop an economy based on something other than energy. All other issues pale by comparison.
For the United States, Saudi Arabia was once indispensable for oil supply. Since the revolution in American production made the United States largely energy independent (with most of its imports coming from the Western Hemisphere), that is no longer the case. The Saudis might be dreaming that the United States will cut oil production itself, thereby increasing prices and reducing pressure on Saudi Arabia. The argument the Saudis will likely make is that, because of low oil prices, Saudi Arabia is unable to do much against IS. In fact, the Saudis will argue that IS will use internal instability to establish operations in Saudi Arabia itself.
The United States wants to defeat IS, but there are limits to what it is prepared to do, and it is aware at this point that defeating one jihadist organisation will simply lead to the creation of another. Modest increases in the price of oil are possible, but they will happen without the intervention of the United States. Washington has no intention of creating a domestic economic and political crisis by helping to raise oil prices just to help stabilize the Saudi regime. Besides, the United States doesn’t believe that the Saudis would fight IS even at $150 per barrel of oil.
Under most American presidents, the maneuvering would be carried out with the carefully scripted hypocrisy that summits demand. But this is Trump, who tweeted that if China helped on North Korea, it would get a better deal on trade.
One of the interesting things about Trump is that on occasion he tells truths that are never uttered in polite company. From where I sit, the outcome of the Middle East trip is fairly obvious. The Turks will accept U.S. aid to the Syrian Kurds, the Israelis will neither give nor get much, and neither will the Saudis. What will be interesting is Trump’s deportment. By this I don’t mean rude outbursts, but rather, will he publicly reveal America’s position, thereby creating political problems in the three Middle Eastern countries in question?
How Trump will say things and how much he will say is unclear, but the American position is really locked into place by reality that no president can ignore.
Given all this, why hold meetings? There are many reasons, but one is that changing interests don’t end relationships. They redefine them. And this is an opportunity for all sides to grasp new realities. If this ends in misunderstandings and tensions, it will not be the cause of anyone’s problems. Those exist independent of meetings.