The constraints that define Donald Trump
One of the core principles of geopolitical forecasting is the idea that political leaders have far less personal power than they are assumed to have. They live in a universe of constraints that not only limit what they can do but also shape their agendas and actions.
When leaders take office, they are faced with complex and competing interests. As a result, the distance between what they say they want to do, what they actually intend to do and what they ultimately do can be dramatic. This is doubly true in the United States, where the founders created a system of government designed to constrain the powers of the president through several institutions: a Congress divided into two houses, running by different rules and populated by representatives who answer to their own constituencies; a Supreme Court answerable to no one and itself divided into factions; and sovereign states that are frequently free to disregard the federal government. Combine that with a dangerous world and an economy out of everyone’s control, and the president can do relatively little. This is the way the world is, and the founders compounded its complexity.
President Donald Trump is now experiencing this complexity, but it’s hardly unique to him. As his presidency is at an interesting point, it is worth pausing and observing the constraints he’s up against and his response.
During the campaign, Trump promised, as all candidates do, many things, from a confrontation with China over trade, to a wall between the United States and Mexico, to repealing Obamacare. As with all presidents, it is hard to parse what he truly believed and what he said only to get enough votes to win the election. But that was his first constraint: to create a platform that might give him victory.
There is a vast difference between running for office and holding it. What he has promised his supporters and what he can deliver are very different things. I wrote several months ago about the problem that was looming, and it is now here. Trump’s approval ratings are in the high 30s. Many of his supporters deny that this is true, but what matters is only whether the Republicans in Congress believe it. They do, and that is Trump’s biggest political problem.
The rule of thumb is that the country is roughly divided 40-40-20 between Republicans, Democrats and independents. When a president’s rating is 40 percent or lower, it means that his support is down to his political base. To be re-elected, he must boost his ratings to at least 50 percent regionally distributed, and that means he can’t follow policies that please only his base. And in order to govern, he must have his own party in Congress united behind him. That isn’t going to happen with approval numbers in the 30s.
All representatives in the House and one-third of senators face election in a little over a year. They will be asking themselves this question: Does being close to Donald Trump help or hurt my re-election chances?
If one faction of the Republican Party – traditional conservatives, tea partiers or evangelicals, for example – opposes the president, it’s hard for a member of Congress backed by that faction to support him. But if the president is extremely popular, being close to him may generate even more support.
All members of the House and Senate facing re-election are calculating how close to the president they want to be. Many have concluded that supporting him, at best, does nothing to help them and, at worst, will cost them their seats. Bear in mind that Trump ran an insurgency against the Republican leadership, and he therefore lacks the kind of