“To confuse economic development with westernisation would be a mistake – one that could wreck China. In fact, the Chinese model of development would become a major lever for Chinese global power as poor countries adopted China’s political system to combi

Chinese President Xi Jinping is presiding over a meeting of the Chinese Communist Party, called the National Congress. These meetings are held in China every five years, and like most political gatherings in most countries, they normally mean very little. This one is different, because it is about crafting a new course for China.

The congress opened with a speech delivered by Xi that was designed, as all political speeches are, to fill the people with confidence in a bright future. It did that, and now the congress will proceed for several days, continuing to energise the country. Then it will end, reality will return and the hard work of fulfillment will begin. Social and political transformations don’t happen without overcoming social and political challenges, and that process is never easy.

Communism in China has gone through two phases. The first was the Maoist phase, which had three goals. One was ending the constant internal warfare that had torn China apart in the pre-communist era. The second was to end the constant foreign intrusions onto Chinese soil. The third was to create a radically new and egalitarian society.

The best name for the period was “permanent revolution.” It succeeded in achieving all three goals, but the price was high. Regional conflict was suppressed by a brutal dictatorship. China in many ways withdrew from interaction with much of the world, and constant waves of assaults on Chinese society were carried out, from the Great Leap Forward to the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution. Millions died of hunger and political oppression.

But Mao had crafted a country that had not existed before. The new China was free of internal struggle, other than what was sponsored by the state, and free of foreign imperialism. It was also staggeringly poor and filled with suffering.

When Mao died in 1976, a power struggle ensued. His faction was defeated by Deng Xiaoping, who recognised that Mao had succeeded in what he wanted, but had led the country to the edge of disaster. Deng realised that Mao’s radical communism could not go on, and out of necessity he forged a new model for China.

Deng’s model could be summarised by the slogan “enrich yourselves.” He understood that China’s problem was poverty and that only production could solve it. But China was too poor to consume what it produced, so it had to sell its products in other countries – the same strategy Germany, Japan and others had used to recover from their wars. China’s advantage was that it had a capable workforce and very low wages, and by opening its borders to trade, China grew rapidly for more than a generation. This growth didn’t come from any great skill; Mao had made China so poor that the smallest rationalisation of Chinese policy would result in massive improvement. It really couldn’t get worse.

Deng created a China that unleashed the commercial expertise of its coastal regions and connected them to customers in the United States and Europe, opening borders while keeping a weakened Communist Party in place. But Deng’s reforms have run their course, and China has entered a new era – still lacking a catchy name. For our purposes, I will name it “the four realities.”

The first is that China’s period of incredible economic growth is over. Deng had created a China that unleashed the commercial expertise of its coastal regions and connected them to customers in the United States and Europe, opening borders while keeping a weakened Communist Party in place.