Uncertainty still high after Catalonia election

Commenting on the Catalonia regional elections held on December 21, DBRS Ratings said it believes political uncertainty in the region is likely to remain high. Although pro-independence parties maintained their majority in the regional parliament, DBRS said it does not currently foresee another unilateral declaration of independence.

Given the likelihood of a weaker proindependence coalition government and the failure of the pro-independence parties to win a majority of the votes, a lower-intensity struggle is now more likely.

The Ciutadans were elected as the first political party in the autonomous community with 37 seats out of 135 seats in the regional parliament (25.4% of votes). The unionist party was closely followed by Junts per Catalunya with 34 seats (21.6% of votes) and Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya with 32 seats (21.4% of votes). Partido de los Socialistas de Cataluna took 17 seats (13.9% of votes) and Catalunya en Comu followed with eight seats (7.5% of votes). Finally, Candidatura d’Unitat Popular (CUP) took four seats (4.5% of votes) and Partido Popular de Cataluna took three seats (4.2% of votes) to complete the regional assembly.

DBRS highlights a few key points from the elections:

— Pro-independence parties maintained their parliamentary majority but have lost two seats compared with previous elections. They now collectively have 70 seats, down from 72 seats in 2015.

— Pro-independence parties, while retaining a majority of seats in parliament, failed again to obtain a majority of the votes, achieving 47.5% of the vote.

— The first political party in the regional parliament is now the Ciutadans, a party opposed to independence.

— CUP, the party that drove the unilateral declaration of independence in October, lost six seats compared with the previous elections; it now has only four seats compared with ten in 2015.

In relation to the four scenarios presented by DBRS in its earlier commentary (“Uncertainty to remain after the Catalan election”) published two days prior to the election, three scenarios continue to remain plausible:

— The scenario;

— The pro-independence scenario; and, — The hung parliament scenario. The unionist government scenario is now obsolete.

Going forward, the different parties’ stances and their respective political agendas

compromise

government

government will be key in forming a working coalition and selecting a future president, the rating agency said.

DBRS also believes that Spain’s centralgovernment stance, which includes the intention to open dialogue with any potential coalition, will be critical for any reduction in tensions and uncertainty.

Reporting from Brussels, EU news and policy portal Euractiv said Catalan independence leader Carles Puigdemont had asked Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to meet “anywhere but Spain” – where arrest warrants are pending for him and four other members of his cabinet – following the election result.

Speaking to reporters, Puigdemont said that the Spanish government must recognise the electorate’s will and that the vote brought Catalonia one step closer to independence: “If you look at the figures it is clear. We managed to vote en masse and without incidents – and under the rules of the Spanish state.”

Spain dissolved the Catalan government after it held an unconstitutional referendum on October 1, which was followed by a unilateral declaration of independence.

“Catalonia wants to be an independent state. We want to vote to decide of our future. It is not a criminal act,” said Puigdemont.

Asked whether he will return in Spain, he avoided a clear-cut answer and said he needs to receive recognition and reassurance from Spain’s prime minister Mariano Rajoy that the central government will respect the vote.

“If they respect the ballot, I can go back tomorrow,” he said, adding he wants to meet with the prime minister anywhere but in Spain, and is ready to talk “about anything”, without preconditions.

He went on to accuse Rajoy of unilaterality, something Madrid has accused him of: “The way of this parliament has always been through dialogue. Unilaterality comes from the other side. If the other side does not respect dialogue, everybody needs to adapt to this scheme.”

On the EU, Puigdemont was cautious in choosing his words.

EU institutions have kept silent on the issue, repeating that Spain’s constitutional order must be respected. The Spanish Constitution is based “on the indissoluble unity of the Spanish Nation” – which is de facto incompatible with Catalan independence.

He said he is not asking the European Commission to change its mind, but speaking in French, he said: “the vote of 7.5 million European citizens gave us the right to be heard”.