“The airstrikes also served an important strategic purpose: preserving the Assad government, which gives Moscow leverage in its dealings with Turkey. Turkey had hoped that the insurrection in Syria would have installed a government friendlier to its inter

Russia’s successes, however, are less impressive than they first appear. The boost to Russia’s image is based largely on the Assad regime’s survival. If Russia withdraws and the Assad regime once again requires assistance, then Moscow will have to intervene again, thereby undermining Putin’s claims that the mission is, in fact, accomplished.

Though the Assad regime has survived, Syria itself has not. It is a broken country that will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to reassemble. The ethnic and sectarian differences are simply too profound. Assad’s government consists of Alawites, members of a sect of Shiism who have always been a minority in their own country. The majority of Syrians are Sunni Arabs, and from this disenfranchised Sunni Arab population the Islamic State was able to recruit its fighters. It’s unclear whether government forces will be strong enough to police the Sunnis.

Then there are Syria’s Kurds, who, in the chaos of the civil war, carved out a sizable tract of territory for themselves. They do not want to give these lands back, and the Syrian army likely can’t make them. The Assad regime may still be alive, but it governs much less territory than it used to.

Russia has tried to engineer a diplomatic solution to the conflict by gathering everyone in Sochi. Its efforts run parallel to the Astana talks, the occasional meetings where Turkey, Iran and Russia plan for Syria’s future and coordinate operations. Nothing has come from Russia’s efforts. Russia, Iran and Turkey all have different visions for Syria’s future. Russia wants an independent Syria that can curb Turkish power. Turkey wants stability on its southern border, but it does not want the gains made by Syrian Kurds to embolden its own Kurds in their search for autonomy. Iran wants Syria to be its proxy state so that it can project power all the way to the Mediterranean.

In short, Russia can’t fix Syria, and there is no diplomatic solution in the offing. As a matter of fact, the countries with interests in Syria can’t even agree on who should pay for its reconstruction.

It’s generally not a sign of good things to come when a country has to rely on foreign powers to rebuild; it’s a sign that the conditions for national healing are absent and that the Assad government will carry on, business as usual, taking donations where it can.

Russia’s Middle East policy depends on Moscow’s ability to convince the world it is more relevant than it is. The policy has artificially inflated Russian strength and has enabled the government to shape the region to its liking. But the Middle East just got much more complicated. The Islamic State had given erstwhile competitors a common enemy to fight and thus to cooperate against, if only temporarily. Now that the Islamic State is all but defeated, traditional rivalries will return to the fore. Russia’s relationship with Turkey, already difficult, will only get worse. Its relationship with Iran, friendly for now, won’t last. The more powerful Iran becomes, the more nervous Russia will become.

As the region evolves, so too must Russian policy. The country’s primary strategic goal will now be to create parity between the region’s major powers. If no country is strong enough to dominate the region, then no country is strong enough to challenge Russia. To the extent possible, the region’s Islamic fundamentalists must be confined to the region. And to the extent possible, Iran and Turkey should be more concerned about each other than about competing with Russia. But this need for parity will contravene Putin’s primary domestic political imperative: appearing strong during tough times at home.

Syria’s future is a perfect case in point. None of Russia’s successes in Syria have enabled Moscow to solve the domestic problems that precipitated its involvement in the first place.

The conflict in Ukraine remains frozen. Oil prices have rebounded modestly but are still lower than Moscow would prefer. And while Russia’s economy has stabilised, there have been periodic anti-Putin protests. But Russia does not want to get bogged down in Syria and so is looking for an exit strategy that preserves the image of Russian heroism. If hostilities resume – a likely scenario – then they will undermine Putin’s presidency just in time for national elections, which is why he chose to announce an end to operations now in the first place.

The elections alone are reason enough for Putin to make this his “Mission Accomplished” moment. He needs to show how strong and effective he still is. In the Middle East, though, success is fleeting. Today’s achievements are tomorrow’s failures. Such is the case for Russia. It can spin future failures later. For now, it got what it wanted – everyone thinks Russia is powerful – and that’s all that matters.