Other Forces at Play

Morocco has long been a Saudi ally. It depended on support and weapons from Saudi Arabia during its war in Western Sahara from 1975-1991, and in 2015 it joined the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, contributing a squadron of warplanes to the effort. As a Sunni country, moreover, Morocco is wary of Iran and its revolutionary ambition to spread Shiite Islam. Rabat severed relations with Iran in 2009, accusing Tehran of trying to convert Moroccan Muslims to Shiism. After resuming ties in 2014 – under the condition that Iran stop proselytizing on its territory – Morocco again broke things off with the Islamic republic this year over allegations that Hezbollah was arming the Polisario Front, with Tehran’s sanction, through the Iranian diplomatic mission in Algeria. Iran vehemently denied the accusation, as did Algeria, though it harbors Polisario’s exiled government and has supported the group to pressure Morocco, with which Algeria has had border disputes and rocky relations.

Many have questioned Iran’s interests in the MoroccoWestern Sahara dispute. But a clear strategic logic supports the notion that Iran has been backing Polisario. According to Morocco, Iran’s support for the group began in 2016, shortly after the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen began. Supporting Polisario would give Tehran a way to try to coerce Rabat into withdrawing from the Saudi coalition effort against the Houthis, an Iranian proxy.

If that was Iran’s strategy, it seems to have worked. Morocco withdrew its squadron from Yemen in April, after Houthi forces downed one of its F-16s, citing the growing risk in Western Sahara, where Rabat claimed Polisario forces were trying to declare a regional capital. The Moroccan government announced it would not tolerate such a move and again suspended relations with Iran the next month. Then in August, it reinstated military conscription. The

Despite Morocco’s decision to pull out of Yemen, however, Iran is still on weak footing in the Middle East. The Saudi coalition’s recent offensive in Hodeida succeeded enough to compel the Houthis to attend peace negotiations in Sweden, after they refused to participate in the previous round of talks in Switzerland in September. The development may well signal to other Iranian proxies that their benefactor, tied down as it is closer to home, lacks the clout to secure their interests. And it’s probably part of the reason Polisario opted to take another shot at peace talks with Morocco.

Iran’s weakness isn’t the only factor at play, though. After all, the conflict between Morocco and Polisario started long before Iran’s alleged support for the movement in Western Sahara did. By far the greater consideration for Polisario is Algeria. It’s a critical ally, since it hosts Polisario’s exiled government.

But in November, Morocco offered to hold talks with Algeria without any preconditions or restrictions on what topics they would cover, indicating that it is open to a compromise over the border issue. Algeria has yet to respond to the suggestion, but Morocco seems eager to reach a resolution. (On the other hand, Algeria did