How Venezuela aligned the Western Hemisphere

The U.S. finds itself aligned with the region. Can it capitalise on the opportunity?

In the Western Hemisphere, it’s Venezuela versus just about everybody. The fallout from the country’s crisis has evolved beyond a confrontation with the United States over sanctions to a hemispheric – even global – melee. The most notable result has been the emerging political and diplomatic alignment against Caracas among states throughout the Americas, including the U.S.

Washington has historically strong-armed its policies into practice across the region, fostering resentment toward the U.S. throughout Latin America. But in Venezuela’s demise, the U.S. and other American countries have found common ground, and it has resulted in a remarkable shift in how the U.S. relates to Latin America, at least for the time being. Alignment on Venezuela may open the door for further U.S. alignment with the region – as long as Washington can avoid alienating itself, once again.

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump recognised opposition leader Juan Guaido as Venezuela’s acting president within hours of Guaido’s announcement that he had assumed the role. On this front, the U.S. is in lockstep with much of the region. Within the Lima Group, a coalition of states in the western Hemisphere, there’s been overwhelming support for democratic political transition in Venezuela. Like the U.S., the majority of members recognise Guaido. Beyond the Lima Group, the list of countries recognising Guaido has grown by the day and now includes former backers of President Nicolas Maduro such as Ecuador. Others, like Uruguay and Mexico, have taken a more neutral stance, favouring dialogue over new elections and choosing not to recognise Guaido. Maduro still has some allies, of course, including Bolivia, Cuba and Nicaragua.

Two factors have shaped the convergence of regional interests over Venezuela.

First, the decline of the “pink tide” – a wave of populist governments elected in several Latin American countries – brought to power governments that were ideologically opposed to the Maduro regime’s socialist policies. While the U.S. has been a longtime critic of the governments of Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chavez, it was not until populist governments throughout the region started losing at the ballot box that the U.S. found allies in this fight.

Second, the spillover from the Venezuelan crisis – particularly the immigration issue – thrust a sizable financial and social burden on its neighbours, which were illequipped to handle the fallout. Venezuela’s quick stabilisation and immediate access to aid are the keys to stemming the migration. The U.S., too, needs a stable Venezuela – both for regional security and to satisfy business interests in the oil sector. This consensus may seem perfectly sensible. But to fully appreciate just how remarkable the alignment of the U.S. and over a dozen regional states truly is, it’s important to understand the history of the United States’ relations with Latin America.

An Interventionist History

Throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, U.S. interventionism largely defined Washington’s relationship with the rest of the Western Hemisphere. In fact, from 1898 to 1994, the U.S. government was behind 41 changes of government in the region. From the onset of the SpanishAmerican War to the start of World War I, in particular, the U.S. intervened to forcibly install and control friendly governments in the region. U.S. forces occupied independent Cuba, its Marines held the Port of Veracruz in Mexico, and U.S. troops were on the ground to help Panama gain independence from Colombia.

World Wars I and II provided a reprieve. The U.S. was focused on the Northern Hemisphere’s conflicts, and the Southern Hemisphere took a back seat. But with the onset of the Cold War, its interventionism came back with a vengeance, propelled by the United States’ imperative to keep Soviet influence out of the Western Hemisphere. The strategy, known as “hemispheric defense,” was focused on preventing Soviet-aligned states from encircling the U.S.; Washington needed to avoid a situation where it would have to make good on its threats to launch a nuclear response. So, the United States launched massive covert campaigns to overthrow governments seen as too friendly toward Moscow, eradicate Soviet sympathisers and bolster dissident militants. The notorious Operation Condor in the Southern Cone epitomised these efforts, but they played out across the region.

With this track record, it’s unsurprising that the U.S. has had a strained relationship with its neighbours in the Western Hemisphere. Many of the anti-communist regimes that the U.S. helped install and prop up brutally repressed their constituents, and Washington’s economic development plans for the region in the 1980s and 1990s fell flat. Many blamed the U.S. – not mistakenly – for the political violence and economic hardships that plagued the region. This resentment laid the foundation for the rise of leaders like Chavez, who garnered public support by vilifying the United States and promising to chart a course free from U.S. “tyranny and imperialism.”

The United States managed to maintain relatively good ties, built on economic and security cooperation, with countries like Peru and Colombia through the 1990s and into the 21st century. But even in these friendlier countries, the governments had to recognise domestic concerns over capitulating to and aligning too closely with the U.S.

But as the Soviet threat receded, the United States’ need to employ force in the region decreased. As its use of force waned, so too did populist, anti-imperialist sentiment. Populist regimes faded away with the emergence of a struggling global economy, and ties between the U.S. and the rest of the hemisphere became less antagonistic.

Playing a New Role

Washington now finds itself in a novel situation – aligned with governments and popular opinion across the Americas – and it must tread carefully if it hopes to maintain these newfound ties. The Lima Group has come out against military intervention in Venezuela, so any use of force there would be damaging to relations across the region. If it reverts to its old tactics, the U.S. will be perceived as blatantly disregarding other countries’ positions on regional affairs, and it will lose the credibility it has gained through its handling of the situation in Venezuela thus far. This could cause Latin American countries to turn toward other