Switching to ‘smart diplomacy’ makes energy a true game-changer

Tiny Cyprus will never be invited by the big boys to play on the top table of the regional geopolitical game, no matter how hard we try, despite the momentum of trilateral or quadrilateral alliances the Republic may embark on.

At best, we can be a friendly bystander watching the game from afar, without any say in how the game is played and who can join.

Alliances are based on mutual benefit and deep-rooted mutual interests, some of which may seem to have gone cold, for the time being, waiting for the opportunity to arise to rekindle these old relationships.

This week’s trilateral-plus-one meeting of energy ministers in Athens was proof of that, with all sides simply reiterating that Cyprus is in the right and no one should jeopardise the Republic’s sovereignty and right to explore for natural gas.

But that’s as far as it went, and Nicosia should not expect anything more.

Beyond the grand declarations of support, the mighty Fifth Fleet US Navy will not change its area of engagement simply to chastise Turkey for meddling in other people’s waters and offshore gas fields.

The US has bigger problems to deal with, what with Ankara’s trigger-happy intentions to grab control of the northern part of Syria (and decimate Kurdish opposition while at it), countered by Turkey’s role in helping to keep up the pressure on Russia and Assad.

Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman ambitions in the region also include striking close relationships with strange bedfellows in the Gulf, some of whom are vying for a leadership role among the Arab world, as is the case of the Saudi-Qatar standoff.

And then there is Israel and Egypt, with the latter concerned by Turkey’s growing influence, while Israel’s seemingly deteriorating relationship with Ankara is balanced with Jerusalem’s sweetheart ties to Azerbaijan, a Turkish satellite state where Russia and the West want to secure natural gas and crude supplies.

There is no doubt that energy is a game-changer, not only for the eastern Mediterranean basin, but also for Cyprus specifically, explaining why Turkey is in a rush to get its foot through the door and demand a share of the Republic’s natural gas wealth, no matter how hard we try to resist and despite the shopping-list length of UN resolutions and EU declarations of support.

Perhaps that is why the government in Nicosia is playing the delaying game, not realising that Turkey has more time and patience than we ever will.

This is where we need smart diplomacy, to be able to persuade the exploration giants (and the governments behind them) to remain on course, maybe even speed up the exploitation process, to have a bigger say, at least within the territory that affects the Republic of Cyprus.

At the same time, with alternative energy (renewables, electricity, storage) being the new name of the game, it was about time Nicosia genuinely embraced the subsea electricity cable project linking Israel to Europe, with an alternative route including Egypt, whose president is far keener on promoting than the Anastasiades administration.

Energy is the key to getting us closer to the top table, where the players will at least start paying some attention to us. Let’s be smart and learn the rules of the game.