Turkish Cypriot leader Akinci leads in opinion polls

Mustafa Akinci is leading in opinion polls in the north by a whopping 15%, ahead of April 2020 elections for the new Turkish Cypriot leader.

According to a survey conducted by the Centre for Migration, Identity and Rights Study, the current Turkish Cypriot leader, despite a slight drop of 1.2 percentage points, leads a list of six candidates with 31.8%. The previous survey was conducted three months ago.

The poll included the names of politicians who are expected to stand as candidates, no party or politician has yet officially announced their intentions.

Akinci is followed by the leader of the leading opposition party leftwing Turkish Republican Party (CTP) Tufan Erhurman who has increased his rating by one percentage point to 17%.

Erhurman is followed by Oguzhan Hasipoglu, the vice president of the National unity Party (UBP) which head the ruling coalition.

Hasipoglu managed to score 8.2% despite his name appearing on the survey for the first time. UBP’s second in command was added to the list, replacing the president of the party and head of the ruling coalition Ersin Tatar, who announced that he will not be standing as a candidate.

The CMIRS included the name of Serdar Denktash, the former leader of the Democratic Party (DP) and son of former Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash, who increased his percentage from 6.8 to 7.8%. Denktash had stepped down as the head of

DP after a land scandal involving his son came to the surface. The scandal led to the dissolution of the previous coalition in which DP was a junior partner.

Demise of ‘Ankara’s protégé’

Notably, the leader of the People’s Party (HP) and former negotiator for the Turkish Cypriot community, Kudret Ozersay has fallen to fourth place.

Ozersay, considered to be favoured by the establishment in Ankara, dropped to 4.8% from 11.4%, while his party’s percentage dropped to 2.29%.

HP had bagged 17.1% of the vote in the latest parliamentary elections held in January last year.

Ozersay’s and his party’s demise is interpreted by political analysts as a reaction of Turkish Cypriots towards Turkey’s evergrowing interference in the affairs of their community.

Propping up the list is leader of the nationalist Rebirth Party, Erhan Arikli with 1.8% dropped from 2.2%. Arikli and several Rebirth Party members were involved in recent attacks against Turkish Cypriot publisher of the Africa newspaper, known for its fierce criticism of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Despite Akinci having an advantage over his potential opponents, his victory cannot be taken for granted as one-third of people asked, did not show a preference for any of the candidates named.

Specifically, 28.6% said they were either undecided, will not vote in the upcoming elections, or will vote for a candidate, not on the list.

Director of CMIRS, Mine Yucel told Turkish Cypriot daily Kibris, it is not yet clear where the vote of the conservative electorate will turn to as right-wing parties have yet to say who they will be backing.

She noted that it is only natural that a large proportion of voters are still indecisive, while the list of candidates has yet to be formed officially.

Ozersay seems to be the candidate of the conservative parties UBP and HP, who also share a similar nationalist approach to the Cyprus problem, as part of what was interpreted as a power-sharing agreement.

The two parties came together to form a ruling coalition, under the leadership of UBP’s Ersin Tatar. In exchange, UBP would back Ozersay in the elections for the next Turkish Cypriot leader.

CMIRS is a Turkish Cypriot non-profit non-governmental organisation and receives European Union funding.