The Caesar Act and Assad’s moment of reckoning

Syria didn’t mean it lost the influence wields in Lebanon via Hezbollah.

Russia is disillusioned with Assad because, despite rescuing his regime from collapse, he did not evict Iran and Hezbollah from Syria and resisted halting the war against the opposition. Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn’t even hide his exasperation with Assad and clearly prefers a quick exit from Syria, especially after he achieved his objectives there. He fears that an extended stay there would turn it into another Afghanistan for the Russian military.

Russia now prefers to get rid of Assad because it perceives him as incompetent and incapable of realizing that Iran is an agent of subversion in the region, which Tehran considers an arena of confrontation with the U.S. Putin privately welcomes the Caesar Act because it does not target Russian interests in Syria, and its consequences for the Assad regime do not disturb him. He understands that he must work closely with the U.S. to bring about a settlement for the Syrian conflict, and it is clear to him that the Caesar Act could make that happen. Putin is keenly aware that for Russian companies to participate in the reconstruction of Syria, Moscow needs to establish an entente with Washington.

As for Iran, the U.S. has made it clear that it will not allow Tehran to use Syria and Lebanon as bargaining chips to spread its regional influence. To that end, the Caesar Act informs Iran that the U.S., in consultation with Russia, determines its influence in Syria, which rules out military intervention. Clearly this doesn’t sit well with leaders in Tehran, who seem determined to resist. On June 20, Hezbollah released a video clip that showed coordinates of targets in Tel Aviv and elsewhere in Israel that it claims are within range of its missiles. Nasrallah commented on the extraordinary revelation that “no matter what you do to block the pathway, it is over, and the task is done” – a reference to frequent Israeli attacks on missile manufacturing sites in Syria and arms convoys destined for Hezbollah in Lebanon. Nasrallah’s defiance drew an immediate reaction from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who reiterated his determination to prevent Iran from enabling Hezbollah to develop advanced missile technology.

There is little doubt that Hezbollah’s missile announcement is meant to provoke an Israeli response.

It appears that the so-called axis of resistance – Iran, Syria, Hezbollah – has concluded that regional war is a lesser evil than economic strangulation.

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Hilal Khashan is a Professor of political science at the American University of Beirut. https://geopoliticalfutures.com