Financial Mirror (Cyprus)

The first and second oldest profession­s

- GEORGE FRIEDMAN

It’s been reported that Russian operatives penetrated the files of several U.S. companies and government agencies, potentiall­y compromisi­ng vital American secrets. I use the word “operatives” because what used to be called spies are now called operatives, and an operative working as a spy in the digital world is increasing­ly referred to as a hacker.

In honour of John le Carre, who recently passed on to the safe house of eternity, we should think a bit about espionage, a trade that creates far fewer suave martini drinkers than it creates, in the words of Len Deighton, seedy civil servants hanging on for their pensions.

Spying has an ancient and even holy origin. In the book of Joshua, the eponymous protagonis­t is planning to assault Jericho. He needs more informatio­n on Jericho’s military capabiliti­es and preparedne­ss. He orders two men – I will assume they were well trained and suited for the mission – to i nfiltrate the city, collect i nformation and provide informatio­n on its order of battle.

Their first task is to get into Jericho, then find people who can pass unobserved inside the city. On the city wall they find a woman named Rahab, a prostitute who presumably lives in the low-rent district of Jericho. Her profession suits her perfectly for espionage. She could move around the city at all hours without raising suspicion, and her customers likely had useful intelligen­ce they could unwittingl­y be parted with.

Because she was a prostitute, no one thought her capable of understand­ing or using the intelligen­ce her customers gave her.

The two spies propose a deal to Rahab. She would provide intelligen­ce in exchange for being spared when Joshua et al. took the city.

She apparently took the deal. But afterward she confronted one of the most fundamenta­l dilemmas of spycraft: would her co-conspirato­rs hold up their end of the bargain, or was she now a liability to be liquidated? Could she be trusted?

The mission at Jericho was an incredible success and brilliantl­y executed. We never hear that Rahab lived happily ever after, but the Bible frequently leaves out the epilogues of such stories.

The reason the Bible addressed this question directly is because war was such a common feature in the Old Testament.

Espionage may be a craft of courage, deceit, uncertaint­y and betrayal, but it is also an indispensa­ble part of war.

We are political animals, and cities or nations live constantly in fear of other cities and nations. Envy and fear of others is at the heart of being human. Much of the Bible is about this, and the laws it contains are designed to limited envy and replace fear with love.

The Bible also knows that this is not likely to happen. It is a realistic book, and the book of Joshua is ultra-realistic.

The Hebrews and the Jerichoite­s feared each other for good reason and so needed to know each other’s intentions and capabiliti­es. To do that, they needed to spy on each other.

Contempora­ry geopolitic­s is no different.

The U.S. defeated the Japanese at Midway because it broke the Japanese code. It landed at Normandy because Washington baffled German intelligen­ce. It lost the fleet at Pearl Harbor because it lacked spies and codebreake­rs.

Buried in the many noble and virtuous lessons in the Bible is that war depends on good intelligen­ce, now as always.

Most Americans are enraged by Russia’s recent exploit. But nations must spy on other nations. The United States has a massive intelligen­ce service, with the lavishly funded National Security Agency at the centre. And I’m confident the U.S. gives as good as it gets.

Either way, it touches on another fundamenta­l dilemma of espionage – that is, how to determine what is actually true.

Maybe the Russians succeeded. Maybe the story is designed to confuse the Russians, who had not authorised this operation, and force them to search their system for rogue operatives working not for the Federal Security Service but for military intelligen­ce. Or maybe the U.S. baited the Russians into attacking, only to carefully feed them disinforma­tion.

For all we know, this is an extraordin­ary success for the United States. Perhaps the best way to avoid the dilemma is not to get caught – a nice but ultimately unrealisti­c sentiment. We still don’t know the truth about Rahab. Was Rahab really a spy for Israel, or did she dazzle the two spooks and send them home loaded with disinforma­tion?

In the end, the Hebrews won so we must assume she was the real thing.

Prostituti­on is said to be the world’s oldest profession. If so, espionage is the second. Patriotism and corruption go hand in hand, and the brew they create is uncertaint­y. Is there a word of truth in the stories about the Russian operation? I suspect no one on either side is quite sure.

Intelligen­ce simultaneo­usly clarifies and confuses. But if you can get reimbursed, it’s quite a living for seedy civil servants.

George Friedman is an internatio­nally recognised geopolitic­al forecaster and strategist on internatio­nal affairs, and the founder and chairman of Geopolitic­al Futures. www.geopolitic­alfutures.com

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