Scotland’s complicated quest for independence

The current push for independence is more about political bargaining than real sovereignty

This week, the conservative Sunday Times newspaper published the results of a poll showing that support for Scottish independence has dropped to its lowest level in two years. It’s not surprising, considering that since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, the issue of independence has come second to more urgent problems that need to be addressed. However, in May, when the pro-independence Scottish National Party and the Green Party won a collective majority in Scottish parliamentary elections, the possibility of holding another independence referendum was put back on the agenda.

Since 2016, the independence debate has been tied to Scotland’s rejection of the U.K.’s withdrawal from the European Union. Last week, a report released by the Scottish government about Brexit’s impact on Scotland concluded: “Brexit is having a tangible and harmful impact on the quality of life of the people of Scotland and on Scottish businesses.” It seems that the Scottish government isn’t done making its case for independence. But it’s also redefining its priorities as it grapples with a number of more urgent challenges. The current calls for independence should therefore be seen less as a real push for sovereignty and more as political bargaining with London. After all, Scotland understands full well that the Commonwealth is critical for London – perhaps now more than ever.

Scotland entered a voluntary union with England in 1707. But since the end of World War II and the collapse of the British Empire, Scotland has grown increasingly anxious about its place in it.

There are three historical concepts that explain Scotland’s view of the United Kingdom. The first is unionism. Since the late 18th century, unionists have argued that Scotland is better off in a union with England than on its own. They supported the merger of the United Kingdom’s constituent parts – England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – and the establishment of a unitary parliament at Westminster.

The second concept is devolution, also referred to as “home rule.” It emerged in Scotland in the late 19th century, when the Scottish Liberal Party adopted the demands of the Irish home rule movement. Under a devolved system, the

U.K.’s constituent parts would be given authority over certain areas of governance. In Scotland, devolution has enjoyed wide public support since the 1960s, when calls for more autonomy grew.

The third concept is independence – i.e., the creation of a separate Scottish state. Its rise coincided with the fall of the British Empire. So long as the empire remained intact, Scotland was able to preserve its unique identity and traditions. It didn’t fear being overtaken by England because the empire was big and global enough to allow room for multiple entities, each of which was distinct from the others. With the empire’s collapse, however, Scotland feared that the interests of England, which had a substantially larger population, would dominate the union.

However, independence wasn’t a serious option until the 1970s, when the Scottish National Party gained popularity in the polls. Many independence supporters promoted a moderate vision of independence – within the broader framework of the Commonwealth and the European Union (before Brexit) – and did not necessarily support complete secession. At the same time, however, two factions developed within the SNP: the fundamentalists, who want full independence immediately, and the gradualists, who support increased devolution and are open to negotiations with the unionists.

As the independence movement gained momentum, London had no choice but to listen to the demands for more autonomy. In 1997, Scotland held a referendum on devolution that resulted in a vote in favor of establishing a Scottish parliament. The parliament was founded in 1999 and granted extensive and exclusive powers over a range of domestic policy issues, though it lacked authority over critical fiscal matters including welfare benefits.

Scottish elections use a modified system of proportional representation where people cast two votes: one for a representative for their constituency and another for a political party. The representatives for the second vote are allocated based on their party’s share of the overall vote. This system makes it difficult for any one party to gain a majority and often requires parties to build coalitions in order to form a government.

After the 1999 and 2003 parliamentary elections, for