Uzbekistan’s role in US strategy for Central Asia

It could help check Russian and Chinese advances in the region

There are early signs that the United States is adopting a more strategic approach to the countries of Central Asia, nearly 32 years after the former Soviet republics gained independence.

Two key factors are driving this shift: the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the intensifying U.S.-China competition. Integrating this long-isolated region into the global economy will go a long way toward dealing with both challenges.

Critical to the U.S.’ strategy will be Uzbekistan, which is undergoing substantial political and economic reforms after years of isolation.

On the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly meeting this week, U.S. President Joe Biden met with his counterparts from all five Central Asian nations, the first in-person sitdown between an American president and the leaders of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.

In brief remarks after the meeting, Biden made a number of noteworthy announcements. He said the U.S. would increase security funding for Central Asia, establish a new business platform for enhanced private sector exchanges to strengthen economic links, and cooperate on critical minerals to ensure long-term energy and supply chain security.

Biden also said another C5+1 heads of state meeting would take place soon in one of the five Central Asian states. It would mark another milestone: the first visit to the region by a sitting American president.

This represents a significant shift in U.S. attitude toward Central Asia. Two and a half years ago, Central Asia wasn’t even mentioned in the National Security Strategic Guidance paper issued by the Biden White House, despite the fact that the bulk of the document placed immense emphasis on countering China.

Indeed, it will take more than statements and visits to engage with a region that has been under the Kremlin’s thumb since the United States’ founding and a key partner for China for three decades.

To be fair, the U.S. did build substantial ties with Kazakhstan on energy and nuclear nonproliferation in the 1990s under the Bush and Clinton administrations. But Washington failed to build on those efforts, despite the significant opportunity presented by the Soviet Union’s collapse. At the time, the Chinese were also in the early stages of developing their geoeconomic posture and had just begun to refocus on the newly independent Central Asian nations.

A generation later, another window of opportunity has emerged for the U.S. with Russia’s increasing decline as a great power and China’s major economic downturn. Washington can use this strategic opening to become a major stakeholder in Central Asia, a region where it has had minimal influence.

The United States already has strong ties with Kazakhstan, the region’s biggest economy. But they won’t be enough to make a substantial impact. Given that Central Asia is a vast, diverse and complex region, Washington will have to engage with each of the five states in order to expand its footprint meaningfully.

Uzbekistan in particular will be crucial. Located at the heart of Eurasia, Uzbekistan is the only Central Asian nation with extensive borders with each of the other four. With a population of 36 million, it’s by far the largest country in the region in terms of demography.

The populations of the other Central Asian states range between 6 million and 19 million. Its population is also expected to grow rapidly in the coming years.

Since taking office in 2016, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has initiated large-scale political and economic reforms, which will require Western support to mature. During my visit last July, it was evident that the country had come a long way since the death in 2016 of dictator Islam Karimov, who had been in power since before the Soviet Union’s collapse and had kept his country in isolation.

Despite its progress, however, the double landlocked country remains highly vulnerable to the vagaries of more powerful nations. Though Russia’s weakening has afforded Uzbekistan (and the region as a whole) time and space to develop its relationships with Western nations, the uncertainty that shrouds Russia’s future could also threaten Uzbekistan’s nascent path toward growth and development. China too has taken a growing interest in the Central Asian nation and is in the process of weaving it into its plans to build a vast connectivity network for Eurasia, which has seen many setbacks in places like Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

Meanwhile, Uzbekistan is facing significant uncertainty along its southern border with Afghanistan, where the Taliban have chosen a very different political path and could threaten the security of the entire region.

As Central Asia’s center of gravity, Uzbekistan could serve as the launchpad for an expanded U.S. role in the region. Unlike many of its neighbors, it doesn’t share a border with either Russia or China and therefore can limit their advances more effectively.

Washington can also use Uzbekistan to keep Afghanistan in check, especially considering the U.S.’ complicated relationship with another Afghan border state, Pakistan, which is also deeply compromised to the Taliban. Uzbekistan thus could be a key component of an effective future American strategy for Central Asia.